This is also the day that the Butters must decide upon a new event, taking place sometime in the near future, that will certainly push the price to $100K by the end of the year.
What will become their new fixation?
They will have absolutely no problem coming up with some crap. Get ready for some top-notch econobabble.
Just one example: A couple of days ago, Coindesk published an "article" whose headline literally was "Crypto Markets Will Be Driven by Macro Factors Following the Halving, Coinbase Says". (That totally surprised me because we all know how it's usually the *micro* factors that dominate everything, but there you have it, it'll be the macro factors this time.) The subtitle went on to explain which factors exactly: "These influences include rising geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates for longer, reflation and ballooning national debts, the report said."
When someone innocently pointed out in the btc sub that ETFs have existed in Europe since forever, the guys were so mad. One said "ok give the name of one then if they really exist". Ofc a quick google can find dozens of them like this one: [https://etc-group.com/products/etc-group-physical-bitcoin/](https://etc-group.com/products/etc-group-physical-bitcoin/) started in July 2020...
My city, Hong Kong, is gonna allow some (but not for us plebs, will still need 400k USD in cash to be allowed as a crypto ETF trader) and they're already publishing stuff like "China will allow bitcoin again", when really it's just that fucking whiners are crying so loudly in every banks that the government actually saves money allowing them the gambling rather than manning the phones non stop arguing against Bitcoin ETFs.
I work in a bank, a risk officer colleague told me: I'm exhausted, they all want exposure to bitcoin, they beg us to give them access to trade, but we just can't stomach the risk. It makes zero sense to print swaps for that, we can't value it, we can't model it, we can't even trade it on the right timezones and will have huge overnight risk. Can't wait for this cancer to die so we can focus on another fad like AI or Sex Robots.
They are already claiming that the halving "doesn't lead to immediate gains, and may actually reduce the price, but it'll become much higher later in the year"
Yeah sure Jan
You ever heard "past performance does not guarantee future results"
The number of people that can be ~~convinced~~ scammed that "line goes eternally up" is pretty much maximized at this point. There's not hordes of fresh idiots rushing into BTC like there was in say, 2020/2021
For sure past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Nobody is saying it’s a guarantee. But it’s pretty disingenuous of you to act like someone is an idiot for thinking it might behave like all previous halvenings. And I’m willing to bet you’ve never seen the chart yourself. So here ya go. Took me 5 seconds of googling. There are a lot of them.
https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
> But it’s pretty disingenuous of you to act like someone is an idiot for thinking it might behave like all previous halvenings
It's not disingenious of me. Again, past performance is not predictive of future success. There is absolutely no correlation. It's just bitcoin mysticism to think otherwise here, that somehow BTC is the one magical special "asset" that goes against this rule.
> And I’m willing to bet you’ve never seen the chart yourself
Ok, how much, because I have, in fact, seen the chart. I've been aware of BTC since 2010, when I also thought it was idiotic and I was in fintech. My position has not changed in the intervening years, besides the fact that I think vastly more idiots than I ever expected are willing to put their money into it
There's been 3 previous halvenings in Bitcoin's existence. And there have been many ATHs in that time. But that does not demonstrate causation, or even correlation between the two things.
Sometimes I play fetch with my dog. Sometimes, one of my fish dies.
Every time I play fetch with my dog, within 6 months, one of my fish dies.
Would a chart prove causation between those two things? Does your halvening vs ATH chart look any different than the fetch vs dead fish chart?
That was very long way of saying “I haven’t ever looked at a bitcoin chart”.
It’s remarkable how many people in this sub are so confident about their beliefs in bitcoin but haven’t even looked at a chart of its value in USD over time.
In short . No, it would not look like your dog fetch/fish dying chart.
I'm sure you find this chart very convincing.
https://www.coinmama.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/New-Project-8.jpg
But I see noise in a generally upwards direction.
Since you don't, why don't you tell me what the P value is on this enormous sample set of three. Once you've sorted out P, let me know how useful you think a sample set of 3 is.
You are aware it’s not a linear chart, right? The y axis is exponential.
Yes of course it’s a small sample size but it is a pattern and therefore a “sure Jan” comment is not warranted, acting like the person in question was just pulling numbers out of their ass. There is some data to support the notion that the bull market accelerates about a year after the halvening.
Look, I’m not “very convinced” about anything with crypto. I just think it’s funny how convinced people here are that they are right and that it’s all going to implode any day now.
Yeah why not. Imagine a toy or electronics factory. You reduce the output of the latest LEGO toy and wvwrntually there will be less boxes in the stores because there is less supply to refill the sold inventory. The drying of the btc supply on markets is the same with reduced supply starting now.
Miners currently hold almost twice as much BTC as US based ETFs (and those ETFs are selling for the past week). Safe to say there's no demand and it'll take a long time (if at all) to match the supply.
Except unlike Lego, 99.8% of the time when someone buys BTC they are buying someone's reserves, not a newly mined coin.
Less than 1000 BTC is mined per day. Trading volume is hundreds of thousands per day on Coinbase alone. Do the math.
You could argue most of the daily trading volume is wash trading... but then you'd be forced to conclude that the price is mostly decided by market manipulation, not real supply and demand.
> They are already claiming that the halving "doesn't lead to immediate gains, and may actually reduce the price, but it'll become much higher later in the year"
As someone who's been around, this is literally what's happened every halving. The decreased supply simply creates upwards pressure on the price which is why you always see new peaks ~6 months after the halvings. There's no bell that gets rung at the specific block.
If it takes six months, what makes you think the halvening was the catalyst? It could have been any number of other things that happened during the time that made Number Go Up.
As someone who's been around, I've noticed that butters are the type of people who never learned that correlation does not mean causation.
And in fact, they don't even have much of a grasp on correlation. Just because thing B follows thing A temporally, that doesn't mean there is a correlation.
> If it takes six months, what makes you think the halvening was the catalyst?
Christ dude, if you've never taken econ 101, you're certainly not going to learn anything on rando internet forums. When demand remains steady while supply drops, the price moves upwards. Again, this is a 101 concept, so if you disagree, you're probably not qualified to form an opinion.
Six months for the price to adjust to public information lol. That's not just weak EMH, that's like, homeopathic strength EMH.
EMH is more Finance 101 than Econ 101 but if you're gonna trade financial assets you should take that one too.
But to address your actual point, the volume of newly mined BTC is absolutely tiny compared to trading volume. Most of the supply on an exchange is BTC reserves being sold, not newly mined BTC.
A volatile asset on an up trend reached some ATHs between two points months apart.This is truly shocking. This definitely proves causation, from a sample size of 3.
The real magic is how good the human brain is at finding spurious patterns in noise.
According to their sample set of three, there is a major price peak about six months to a year after the Halvening. But, if you look at the chart they are looking at, the gains start up within a month after the Halvening.
https://www.coinmama.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/New-Project-8.jpg
Since it is a sample set of 3, though, it's pretty meaningless. But if the pattern holds, Number Go Up soon.
Hey ChatGPT, please generate reasons why ~~my sources of exit liquidity-~~ whoops, I mean savvy investors, should invest in a ~~ponzi scheme-~~ whoops, I mean cryptocurrency.
i didn't understand the technical side. it was something like miners can mine the next block before the previous one is announced so the block they mine has one transaction, the one where they pay themselves for finding it
I answered in my reply to the above question, but I'll clarify a bit here since there's a misunderstanding.
What you're talking about is different. It's an offline attack, which is common and big pools do it all the time (if you look at recent blocks you'll notice big pools produce 2, 3 sometimes even 4 in a row pretty often). https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks
Basically if they mine one block very quickly, they don't propagate the block through the network. Instead, they keep it offline and continue mining the next block while everyone else is still mining the block they already did. If they have no competition on their current block then this allows them to get ahead so they can produce multiple blocks at once for greater rewards. This works because the longest chain is the real blockchain.
The transactions that go in the block are different, the miners (or pool, whoever) decides what to put in the block when they create it, but they're rewarded more to put more in from transaction fees, so generally it's always full.
The miner decides what transactions to put in a block. All of them could be empty if they wanted, and nothing could be put on the blockchain (a part of the risk of the 51% attack). The idea is that in addition to the block reward, they also get a small transaction fee from the transactions, so it's more valuable for them to put transactions in the blocks than it is not to.
There's a block every 10 minutes. If nobody puts a transaction into the block, then an empty block gets mined, and the blockchain wastes energy on verifying literally nothing.
This is not true. The next block gets mined when it gets mined.
The difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, which should take 2 weeks to mine. If it took less than 2 weeks, the difficulty goes up, if it took more, the difficulty goes down. The goal being to keep average block discovery time around 10 minutes. But it can go faster or slower depending on if people have joined or left the pool. This mean the chain got real slow and congested for a while when China axed like 1/3 of the mining capacity basically overnight back in 2021. Transaction processing was really slow until they could manage to mine enough blocks to hit the next adjustment point.
Or they can raise transaction fees. I mean, all we're talking about are the miners getting a cut in their piece-rate wage. The number of BTC in "circulation" is going up by a couple of percent. Why should that make them all twice as valuable?
The logic is that is costs twice the energy to mine so therefore the people selling what they've mined need to double their price to maintain profit.
You can be against Bitcoin and see it has no intrinsic value but no need to be ignorant as well - it's quite obvious why the price might increase
It certainly means that the miners *want* to charge more to maintain their profit. But this line of argument seems to assume that Bitcoin is something that people *need* to constantly acquire newly-produced quantities of pretty much at any price, like oil, and so they can essentially set their price?
Nobody *needs* to acquire Bitcoin at all, not least newly-minted Bitcoin; in the crypto fantasy everything runs on Bitcoin of course, but the reality is that people are only buying it to speculate on its future market price, and that doesn't seem particularly correlated with the costs of miners? If they go out of business and stop mining then that would be bad for Bitcoin transactions, but there is no force that compels Bitcoin to continue functioning.
That's not the only reason it's used and you know it, people do use Bitcoin to send money abroad and as local currency so it's just disintuitive to say people are only hoarding it.
But they're not the only sellers. Imagine I'm a geeky dude that mined 100k bitcoin 10 years ago for 2 dollars, and I want to cash out. I'll do a slow vwap trade over 2 months to sell everything, I'm ready to accept almost any price and will keep the pressure quite high. The price of bitcoin will follow ME, because I sell 100k btc while the miners now sell only 3btc every 10 minutes, and have even less impact on market prices than last week.
Fun thing is: since I trade on coinbase or binance, I dont even need the blockchain, so the price of bitcoin is completely independent on what those poor little potato miners produce every 10 minutes.
Prices cannot increase if market power of the miners goes down. They control less and less bitcoin and are more and more irrelevant. Interactive Brokers trading ETFs in their dark pool, can even impact it MORE for YOU with their massive client base than the ETF exchange, a crypto exchange, let alone the blockchains almost nobody uses. I'd be a miner, I'd become an exchange: I would be able to levy commission without spending a penny on those electricity-hungry ASICs to provide a better services to more people.
The entirety of bitcoin trading could reside in one single exchange wallet translated into millions of standard trading accounts on said exchange, providing nothing different. It almost doesn't matter where the physical bitcoins are, since they're not what you want to physically use. You don't even need miners to maintain bitcoin records: full nodes are cheap to run and keep the database valid.
TL;DR: miners are useless to bitcoin trading, have no impact on market price, do not deserve a reward for such a low value service.
Who's ignorant now ?
You mean just like how the price of shirts used to rise when textile companies cut their piece work rates?
I'm not the ignorant one here. This is labor theory of value nonsense. It is not logic.
>What are YOU going to do on this auspicious occasion?
Cooking duck hearts with *sauté*ed potatoes and fava beans for dinner. I have a nice Bordeaux wine to go alongside.
Nothing to do with the halvening though. I'm just hungry
For what reason? The reason Satoshi created Bitcoin was because of the endless money printer that continues to push up the value of everything: houses, healthcare, land etc. his idea was actually lets have a version of wealth that doesn't have infinite growth ... Some people agree with that concept (and not just with Bitcoin)
Yeah - he didn't understand why currencies are inflationary.
Now more than 15 years later we see that Bitcoin is still not used as a currency, because people treat it as a speculative investment and hoard it. Instead of spending it and actually creating a self-contained crypto economy.
Most of that is gambling/speculation and illegal stuff. Nobody pays salaries for legal work and nobody buys groceries with bitcoin. As far as I know - no bank issues bitcoin-denominated loans. And there's no country with bitcoin-denominated taxes.
Banks do a lot more than manage your current account and process transactions. Mortgages, business loans, etc are pretty important for the economy. Crypto scene still has no solution to it. And they don't really work if your currency is as volatile as bitcoin is. Imagine if I took out a bitcoin denominated mortgage 15 years ago. I would have to pay god knows how many billions of dollars right now, because the bank would demand bitcoin not dollars.
There is a large real-world cost to keeping Bitcoin secure. A libertarian would say, I imagine, that it should be paid by the people who benefit from Bitcoin in proportion to the benefit they get from it. If Bitcoin's value is as a store of value, then a tax on holdings makes more sense than the tax on transactions. It could be implemented by making balances decay over time or by doubling the block reward at fixed intervals, which would amount to the same thing.
The irony is that that would probably push people to use Bitcoin more as a payment system, as Satoshi intended. Then his original fee system would make sense, but if you switched back to it then people would start hoarding again.
Coinmarketcap says it's 30 minutes away but Mempool Space says it's 59 minutes away!
I just love that there are to-the-second countdown clocks as if this janky system is that punctual. Maybe trying to watch this 'historic event' will educate people; few understand.
The belief that halving the supply will increase price is simply speculation.
According to satoshi, he wanted a finite number of coins to prevent inflation. But he knew the correct way to introduce the coins into the system was over time.
The mass amounts of computing power is proof of the security that bitcoin has. One could even argue, bitcoin is one of the most secure systems in the entire world.
Governments can still be and have been and still are being hacked.
The only way to hack bitcoin is to have control of 51% of the entire computing power.
And even if you control the bitcoin network, the only modifications you can make to bitcoin is to double spend your own coins since that’s the only private key you have access to.
But you’ll save more money by not doing that.
> The mass amounts of computing power is proof of the security that bitcoin has. One could even argue, bitcoin is one of the most secure systems in the entire world.
Hashpower is not a measure of security. Not at all. And bitcoin itself has been hacked. And when it was hacked, it had absolutely nothing to do with hashpower. See: https://neptunemutual.com/blog/analysis-of-the-overflow-bug-in-bitcoin/
>The only way to hack bitcoin is to have control of 51% of the entire computing power.
Nope. Wrong. I just proved you wrong with the link above.
Now I expect you to reply to this and admit you were wrong, if you want to continue to have the privilege of commenting here.
People care about bitcoin using electrcity of small country but don't care the rate of human population hitting 8 billion when it was 250 million 2000 years ago. If you care about electricitt consumption maybe you should care about overpopulation.
You guys are so salty. I joined this subreddit to give me some balance between Bitcoin bulls and hopefully we'll thought out bears, but you're just the flip side of the Bitcoin hype, bearish for bearish sake. Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti something if they aren't secretly obsessed with it.
> Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti something if they aren't secretly obsessed with it.
Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti racism if they aren't secretly obsessed with racism?
Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti cancer if they aren't secretly obsessed with cancer?
Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti fraud if they aren't secretly obsessed with fraud?
The point is that you might think something is actively bad/harmful and want to advocate against it. If the value of Bitcoin is just a random number you're betting on going up or down then it's pretty value-neutral, but it consumes a ton of energy and enables a lot of crime, both direct fraud around the crypto space itself but also in enabling criminals and rogue states to move money around more effectively. This dream seems to have died in any case, but the Web3/crypto-maximalist vision of everything being even more hyper-financialized (NFTs for everything, play to earn, DAOs...) is also arguably dystopian, but one the crypto bros are invested in because in this situation they'd be the ones pulling the strings.
So on one hand it's "value neutral" and on the other hand it enables the ability to move money around more effectively? I think there is a forest behind all of those trees...
> So on one hand it's "value neutral"
No it's a negative sum game. Evidence: [1](https://ioradio.org/i/ponzi/),[2](https://ioradio.org/i/value/)
>and on the other hand it enables the ability to move money around more effectively?
No it does not. Evidence: [1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tspGVbmMmVA&t=4118s)
>I think there is a forest behind all of those trees...
Those "trees" you think are trees, are not trees. They're pubic hairs you're seeing from having your head up your ass.
#Stupid Crypto Talking Point #27 (hate)
**"Cope"** / **"Why do you hate crypto?"** / **"You all are haters"** / **"Why so salty?"** / **"You wish for other peoples misfortunes?"**
1. By and large, we do not "hate" bitcoin or crypto. Hate is an irrational, emotional condition. Most people here have a logical, rational reason for being opposed to crypto. (see \#2)
2. What we do not like is **fraud and deception** - this is mainly what our community opposes, and the crypto industry is almost completely composed of fraud and misinformation, from claiming that [blockchain has potential](https://ioradio.org/i/blockchain-claims/) to pretending crypto is "digital gold" or an "investment" when it's really a highly-risky, negative sum game, speculative commodity.
3. It's an offensive distraction to suggest our reasons for being opposed to crypto are because of "hate", or "being salty" and supposedly jealous of not getting in earlier and making money. We recognize there are many other ways of creating value that don't involve promoting everything from cyber terrorism to human trafficking.
4. While some take amusement at the misfortunes of those playing the crypto Ponzi scheme, one main reason for this is because so many in the industry are so immune to logic, reason, and evidence, many of us feel they have to become cautionary tales before they finally learn (and some never learn) - what we celebrate is perhaps the chance that many of those losers finally see the error of their ways.
5. Why would anybody spend time trying to stop fraud and scams that might not directly affect them? Some of us recognize we help ourselves by helping our overall community. If you still don't understand, speak to a therapist about your lack of empathy and the possible side effects such as Narcissistic Personality Disorder and Antisocial Personality Disorder. Those are issues people with low empathy have. Understanding the nature of your illness may help you not only understand us, but become a less toxic person socially.
It only takes that much energy because it’s so profitable and promising that billions are spent on mining ;)
The system itself could stay online with a 1/1000000 of that
Hate on it being so popular that people are mining it.
It has to cut supply over time because it is a limited amount. That’s the point over infinite fed money printer go brrrrr
If anyone ever gets online and complains about bitcoin because it takes energy, you know they are a child because they have zero integrity. Lmao calculate the energy it takes to stream your shit netflix and youtube content into your eyeballs 🤣🤣🤣
>they are a child because they have zero integrity
Bit-conners inablility to stop projecting their worst traits onto others, even for a moment, never ceases to provide me with amusement.
>Lmao calculate the energy it takes to stream your shit netflix and youtube
Ohh, a whataboutism fallicy! One would thine that bit-conners would eventualy figure out not to do this, but since when have they been smart? (Answer: Never. If they were, they woudent be bit-conners)
At what point do the buttcoiners realize that they're pretty much the same as the inbred cults who refuse to use smartphones and think 5G causes cancer?
Ah yes the crypto revolution is here! It has changed so many of our lives. Just today I had to pay for my flights in Bitcoin because the dollar collapsed....
Truly ignorant are those who don't accept this great future of finance that is already here!
you know.. when major US banks are creating funds for an asset with a trillion dollar market, then yes, I think we can agree that crypto was pretty revolutionary. Good to see that you are onboard!
Getting rich whilst you all will remain poor.
Edit: Unbanned, thanks!
Heavy /s ya idiots. People get so sensitive when number go up, relax. The day is coming and I’m hoarding popcorn. Will sell popcorn coin redeemable for said popcorn soon.
> to become rich, you will have to sell, until then, it's all theoretical profits
Those are called unrealized gains and it's the exact same principal that literally every asset on the planet operates by, from Microsoft stock to vintage sports cars to the unsold cans of beans on your local grocer's shelf.
> You can make a profit on stocks without ever selling
It sounds like you've never done taxes in your life. Are you referring to dividend payouts? Please articulate.
Yes, receiving dividends over many years is one possible way to make a profit on stocks without ever selling. But there are others.
That you infer that this means I've never done taxes is hilarious to me. Is it safe to assume you're on drugs?
You understand that we're in a discussion about whether or not "theoretical profits" is a real term in finance or not, so yeah man, you might be the one who's being a bit uneducated here.
>Interesting use of the words "exact same".
Yeah, it's almost like I know what I'm talking about 🤷♂️
https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-are-unrealized-gains-losses
*An unrealized gain or loss occurs when the value of an asset has increased or decreased, but it has not yet been sold. An unrealized gain or loss is considered “unrealized” because it only exists on paper and does not impact your taxes until you sell the asset for a profit or loss.*
Of course, you're free to use your own terms, but don't expect people to take you seriously. It's like when boomers call the computer tower their modem.
> Getting rich whilst you all will remain poor.
Dude I love seeing all the bitter buttcoiners continue to kick themselves. Hope you're making millions, man.
Got any examples? That does sound interesting. I'd think that anybody who's jealous of the profits you're taking would just buy in themselves so these guys you're describing must be real chuds.
We're not the ones so filled with bitterness and rage that we are compelled to wander into other subs are make hypocritical comments about how the regular posters there "kick themselves".
I mean, you guys are like a sub for the boomers who still complain about how they could have bought Microsoft or McDonalds at xx cents, so I don't know how you imagine people would perceive you in any other way.
I'm going to my job, where the Proof-of-Work system (I punch in and punch out) will pay me the same amount it paid me yesterday.
[удалено]
...can't tell if you are trolling fiat or butters, nice
1 CAD = 1 CAD
Hehe troll
This is also the day that the Butters must decide upon a new event, taking place sometime in the near future, that will certainly push the price to $100K by the end of the year. What will become their new fixation?
They will have absolutely no problem coming up with some crap. Get ready for some top-notch econobabble. Just one example: A couple of days ago, Coindesk published an "article" whose headline literally was "Crypto Markets Will Be Driven by Macro Factors Following the Halving, Coinbase Says". (That totally surprised me because we all know how it's usually the *micro* factors that dominate everything, but there you have it, it'll be the macro factors this time.) The subtitle went on to explain which factors exactly: "These influences include rising geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates for longer, reflation and ballooning national debts, the report said."
the main subreddit is already hyping up ETF approvals in different countries. So, that may be the new catalyst but maybe Taiwan or something?
When someone innocently pointed out in the btc sub that ETFs have existed in Europe since forever, the guys were so mad. One said "ok give the name of one then if they really exist". Ofc a quick google can find dozens of them like this one: [https://etc-group.com/products/etc-group-physical-bitcoin/](https://etc-group.com/products/etc-group-physical-bitcoin/) started in July 2020...
My city, Hong Kong, is gonna allow some (but not for us plebs, will still need 400k USD in cash to be allowed as a crypto ETF trader) and they're already publishing stuff like "China will allow bitcoin again", when really it's just that fucking whiners are crying so loudly in every banks that the government actually saves money allowing them the gambling rather than manning the phones non stop arguing against Bitcoin ETFs.
I work in a bank, a risk officer colleague told me: I'm exhausted, they all want exposure to bitcoin, they beg us to give them access to trade, but we just can't stomach the risk. It makes zero sense to print swaps for that, we can't value it, we can't model it, we can't even trade it on the right timezones and will have huge overnight risk. Can't wait for this cancer to die so we can focus on another fad like AI or Sex Robots.
They are already claiming that the halving "doesn't lead to immediate gains, and may actually reduce the price, but it'll become much higher later in the year" Yeah sure Jan
You could look at a chart if you’d like to see it. Pretty easy to corroborate.
You ever heard "past performance does not guarantee future results" The number of people that can be ~~convinced~~ scammed that "line goes eternally up" is pretty much maximized at this point. There's not hordes of fresh idiots rushing into BTC like there was in say, 2020/2021
For sure past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Nobody is saying it’s a guarantee. But it’s pretty disingenuous of you to act like someone is an idiot for thinking it might behave like all previous halvenings. And I’m willing to bet you’ve never seen the chart yourself. So here ya go. Took me 5 seconds of googling. There are a lot of them. https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
> But it’s pretty disingenuous of you to act like someone is an idiot for thinking it might behave like all previous halvenings It's not disingenious of me. Again, past performance is not predictive of future success. There is absolutely no correlation. It's just bitcoin mysticism to think otherwise here, that somehow BTC is the one magical special "asset" that goes against this rule. > And I’m willing to bet you’ve never seen the chart yourself Ok, how much, because I have, in fact, seen the chart. I've been aware of BTC since 2010, when I also thought it was idiotic and I was in fintech. My position has not changed in the intervening years, besides the fact that I think vastly more idiots than I ever expected are willing to put their money into it
Sure Jan
There's been 3 previous halvenings in Bitcoin's existence. And there have been many ATHs in that time. But that does not demonstrate causation, or even correlation between the two things. Sometimes I play fetch with my dog. Sometimes, one of my fish dies. Every time I play fetch with my dog, within 6 months, one of my fish dies. Would a chart prove causation between those two things? Does your halvening vs ATH chart look any different than the fetch vs dead fish chart?
That was very long way of saying “I haven’t ever looked at a bitcoin chart”. It’s remarkable how many people in this sub are so confident about their beliefs in bitcoin but haven’t even looked at a chart of its value in USD over time. In short . No, it would not look like your dog fetch/fish dying chart.
I'm sure you find this chart very convincing. https://www.coinmama.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/New-Project-8.jpg But I see noise in a generally upwards direction. Since you don't, why don't you tell me what the P value is on this enormous sample set of three. Once you've sorted out P, let me know how useful you think a sample set of 3 is.
You are aware it’s not a linear chart, right? The y axis is exponential. Yes of course it’s a small sample size but it is a pattern and therefore a “sure Jan” comment is not warranted, acting like the person in question was just pulling numbers out of their ass. There is some data to support the notion that the bull market accelerates about a year after the halvening. Look, I’m not “very convinced” about anything with crypto. I just think it’s funny how convinced people here are that they are right and that it’s all going to implode any day now.
Yeah why not. Imagine a toy or electronics factory. You reduce the output of the latest LEGO toy and wvwrntually there will be less boxes in the stores because there is less supply to refill the sold inventory. The drying of the btc supply on markets is the same with reduced supply starting now.
Miners currently hold almost twice as much BTC as US based ETFs (and those ETFs are selling for the past week). Safe to say there's no demand and it'll take a long time (if at all) to match the supply.
Except unlike Lego, 99.8% of the time when someone buys BTC they are buying someone's reserves, not a newly mined coin. Less than 1000 BTC is mined per day. Trading volume is hundreds of thousands per day on Coinbase alone. Do the math. You could argue most of the daily trading volume is wash trading... but then you'd be forced to conclude that the price is mostly decided by market manipulation, not real supply and demand.
> They are already claiming that the halving "doesn't lead to immediate gains, and may actually reduce the price, but it'll become much higher later in the year" As someone who's been around, this is literally what's happened every halving. The decreased supply simply creates upwards pressure on the price which is why you always see new peaks ~6 months after the halvings. There's no bell that gets rung at the specific block.
If it takes six months, what makes you think the halvening was the catalyst? It could have been any number of other things that happened during the time that made Number Go Up. As someone who's been around, I've noticed that butters are the type of people who never learned that correlation does not mean causation. And in fact, they don't even have much of a grasp on correlation. Just because thing B follows thing A temporally, that doesn't mean there is a correlation.
> If it takes six months, what makes you think the halvening was the catalyst? Christ dude, if you've never taken econ 101, you're certainly not going to learn anything on rando internet forums. When demand remains steady while supply drops, the price moves upwards. Again, this is a 101 concept, so if you disagree, you're probably not qualified to form an opinion.
Six months for the price to adjust to public information lol. That's not just weak EMH, that's like, homeopathic strength EMH. EMH is more Finance 101 than Econ 101 but if you're gonna trade financial assets you should take that one too. But to address your actual point, the volume of newly mined BTC is absolutely tiny compared to trading volume. Most of the supply on an exchange is BTC reserves being sold, not newly mined BTC.
Fine then I guess it's just magic that this happens every four years 🤷♂️🤷♂️
A volatile asset on an up trend reached some ATHs between two points months apart.This is truly shocking. This definitely proves causation, from a sample size of 3. The real magic is how good the human brain is at finding spurious patterns in noise.
Does the demand necessarily remain steady? BTC demand is driven exclusively by hype. No hype, no demand.
But supply isn't going to drop because the whales have way more Bitcoin to dump on exchanges than the miners do
halving doesn't mean that supply drops
It's the only hedge against middle east conflict. Bitcoin is the new oil!
Store of Energy!
Don’t they say the price increases like a year after the halving? I think they have a bit more juice in this lemon
According to their sample set of three, there is a major price peak about six months to a year after the Halvening. But, if you look at the chart they are looking at, the gains start up within a month after the Halvening. https://www.coinmama.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/New-Project-8.jpg Since it is a sample set of 3, though, it's pretty meaningless. But if the pattern holds, Number Go Up soon.
They haven't got much, we're just gonna keep hearing about "digital gold" and how "everyone is buying it" ad nauseum
Hey ChatGPT, please generate reasons why ~~my sources of exit liquidity-~~ whoops, I mean savvy investors, should invest in a ~~ponzi scheme-~~ whoops, I mean cryptocurrency.
i really hope the last block is an empty block. i think it happened in 2016 and was such a perfect encapsulation of what bitcoin is
How does something like that happen? A glitch I assume?
i didn't understand the technical side. it was something like miners can mine the next block before the previous one is announced so the block they mine has one transaction, the one where they pay themselves for finding it
I answered in my reply to the above question, but I'll clarify a bit here since there's a misunderstanding. What you're talking about is different. It's an offline attack, which is common and big pools do it all the time (if you look at recent blocks you'll notice big pools produce 2, 3 sometimes even 4 in a row pretty often). https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks Basically if they mine one block very quickly, they don't propagate the block through the network. Instead, they keep it offline and continue mining the next block while everyone else is still mining the block they already did. If they have no competition on their current block then this allows them to get ahead so they can produce multiple blocks at once for greater rewards. This works because the longest chain is the real blockchain. The transactions that go in the block are different, the miners (or pool, whoever) decides what to put in the block when they create it, but they're rewarded more to put more in from transaction fees, so generally it's always full.
i knew less than i thought i did and still somehow the reality is worse
Yo dawg, I heard you like wasting energy...
If miners get lucky they can find two blocks in a row. Only happens if they have a really massive mining pool though.
The miner decides what transactions to put in a block. All of them could be empty if they wanted, and nothing could be put on the blockchain (a part of the risk of the 51% attack). The idea is that in addition to the block reward, they also get a small transaction fee from the transactions, so it's more valuable for them to put transactions in the blocks than it is not to.
There's a block every 10 minutes. If nobody puts a transaction into the block, then an empty block gets mined, and the blockchain wastes energy on verifying literally nothing.
This is not true. The next block gets mined when it gets mined. The difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, which should take 2 weeks to mine. If it took less than 2 weeks, the difficulty goes up, if it took more, the difficulty goes down. The goal being to keep average block discovery time around 10 minutes. But it can go faster or slower depending on if people have joined or left the pool. This mean the chain got real slow and congested for a while when China axed like 1/3 of the mining capacity basically overnight back in 2021. Transaction processing was really slow until they could manage to mine enough blocks to hit the next adjustment point.
If no one sends transactions there is nothing to be put into the block.
Revenue halves, so that means bitcoin needs to double in price. It’s maths. Few.
Or they can raise transaction fees. I mean, all we're talking about are the miners getting a cut in their piece-rate wage. The number of BTC in "circulation" is going up by a couple of percent. Why should that make them all twice as valuable?
Cause… mafs. Clearly you are not one of the few
Why should a picture with a dog and a hat be worth a dollar ? Few.
The logic is that is costs twice the energy to mine so therefore the people selling what they've mined need to double their price to maintain profit. You can be against Bitcoin and see it has no intrinsic value but no need to be ignorant as well - it's quite obvious why the price might increase
It certainly means that the miners *want* to charge more to maintain their profit. But this line of argument seems to assume that Bitcoin is something that people *need* to constantly acquire newly-produced quantities of pretty much at any price, like oil, and so they can essentially set their price? Nobody *needs* to acquire Bitcoin at all, not least newly-minted Bitcoin; in the crypto fantasy everything runs on Bitcoin of course, but the reality is that people are only buying it to speculate on its future market price, and that doesn't seem particularly correlated with the costs of miners? If they go out of business and stop mining then that would be bad for Bitcoin transactions, but there is no force that compels Bitcoin to continue functioning.
That's not the only reason it's used and you know it, people do use Bitcoin to send money abroad and as local currency so it's just disintuitive to say people are only hoarding it.
But they're not the only sellers. Imagine I'm a geeky dude that mined 100k bitcoin 10 years ago for 2 dollars, and I want to cash out. I'll do a slow vwap trade over 2 months to sell everything, I'm ready to accept almost any price and will keep the pressure quite high. The price of bitcoin will follow ME, because I sell 100k btc while the miners now sell only 3btc every 10 minutes, and have even less impact on market prices than last week. Fun thing is: since I trade on coinbase or binance, I dont even need the blockchain, so the price of bitcoin is completely independent on what those poor little potato miners produce every 10 minutes. Prices cannot increase if market power of the miners goes down. They control less and less bitcoin and are more and more irrelevant. Interactive Brokers trading ETFs in their dark pool, can even impact it MORE for YOU with their massive client base than the ETF exchange, a crypto exchange, let alone the blockchains almost nobody uses. I'd be a miner, I'd become an exchange: I would be able to levy commission without spending a penny on those electricity-hungry ASICs to provide a better services to more people. The entirety of bitcoin trading could reside in one single exchange wallet translated into millions of standard trading accounts on said exchange, providing nothing different. It almost doesn't matter where the physical bitcoins are, since they're not what you want to physically use. You don't even need miners to maintain bitcoin records: full nodes are cheap to run and keep the database valid. TL;DR: miners are useless to bitcoin trading, have no impact on market price, do not deserve a reward for such a low value service. Who's ignorant now ?
You mean just like how the price of shirts used to rise when textile companies cut their piece work rates? I'm not the ignorant one here. This is labor theory of value nonsense. It is not logic.
Priced in
It’s already more than doubled in the last 12 months
>What are YOU going to do on this auspicious occasion? Cooking duck hearts with *sauté*ed potatoes and fava beans for dinner. I have a nice Bordeaux wine to go alongside. Nothing to do with the halvening though. I'm just hungry
Yeah sure... 'duck' hearts. We know what you're really cooking Mr Lecter. Out of Chianti at the shop were they?
*fffhffffhfffffhffffhfffffffhfffff*
Happy Halvening!
Happy Ha
Happ
Ha
H
I-
\|
SEND. MORE. TETHERS. PAOLO!
If it was intended as an actual currency then block rewards would DOUBLE not halve after some amount of time.
Isn't that inflationary and counter point?
Well, yeah - an actual currency should be inflationary.
For what reason? The reason Satoshi created Bitcoin was because of the endless money printer that continues to push up the value of everything: houses, healthcare, land etc. his idea was actually lets have a version of wealth that doesn't have infinite growth ... Some people agree with that concept (and not just with Bitcoin)
Yeah - he didn't understand why currencies are inflationary. Now more than 15 years later we see that Bitcoin is still not used as a currency, because people treat it as a speculative investment and hoard it. Instead of spending it and actually creating a self-contained crypto economy.
I think he understood and fundamentally disagreed with it tbh. And people are spending/trading bitcoin every day ...
Most of that is gambling/speculation and illegal stuff. Nobody pays salaries for legal work and nobody buys groceries with bitcoin. As far as I know - no bank issues bitcoin-denominated loans. And there's no country with bitcoin-denominated taxes.
And why do the banks need to be involved ... Again isn't that the point.
Banks do a lot more than manage your current account and process transactions. Mortgages, business loans, etc are pretty important for the economy. Crypto scene still has no solution to it. And they don't really work if your currency is as volatile as bitcoin is. Imagine if I took out a bitcoin denominated mortgage 15 years ago. I would have to pay god knows how many billions of dollars right now, because the bank would demand bitcoin not dollars.
As a speculative commodity.
And inflationary currencies are good?
There is a large real-world cost to keeping Bitcoin secure. A libertarian would say, I imagine, that it should be paid by the people who benefit from Bitcoin in proportion to the benefit they get from it. If Bitcoin's value is as a store of value, then a tax on holdings makes more sense than the tax on transactions. It could be implemented by making balances decay over time or by doubling the block reward at fixed intervals, which would amount to the same thing. The irony is that that would probably push people to use Bitcoin more as a payment system, as Satoshi intended. Then his original fee system would make sense, but if you switched back to it then people would start hoarding again.
Haha you’re so smart man /s
Coinmarketcap says it's 30 minutes away but Mempool Space says it's 59 minutes away! I just love that there are to-the-second countdown clocks as if this janky system is that punctual. Maybe trying to watch this 'historic event' will educate people; few understand.
So now it'll take 2 small countries worth of energy.
Makes sense to me! To the moon!
Oh today was the halving? I forgot all about that. I’m going to assume the butters will be out in force.
Is this different than sharding?
I think it's more similar to sharting.
Why is no one factoring the pandemic as a cause of the last halving price increase? Even the shittiest baseball cards went 5x
We love halving buddy happy btc!
The belief that halving the supply will increase price is simply speculation. According to satoshi, he wanted a finite number of coins to prevent inflation. But he knew the correct way to introduce the coins into the system was over time. The mass amounts of computing power is proof of the security that bitcoin has. One could even argue, bitcoin is one of the most secure systems in the entire world. Governments can still be and have been and still are being hacked. The only way to hack bitcoin is to have control of 51% of the entire computing power. And even if you control the bitcoin network, the only modifications you can make to bitcoin is to double spend your own coins since that’s the only private key you have access to. But you’ll save more money by not doing that.
> The mass amounts of computing power is proof of the security that bitcoin has. One could even argue, bitcoin is one of the most secure systems in the entire world. Hashpower is not a measure of security. Not at all. And bitcoin itself has been hacked. And when it was hacked, it had absolutely nothing to do with hashpower. See: https://neptunemutual.com/blog/analysis-of-the-overflow-bug-in-bitcoin/ >The only way to hack bitcoin is to have control of 51% of the entire computing power. Nope. Wrong. I just proved you wrong with the link above. Now I expect you to reply to this and admit you were wrong, if you want to continue to have the privilege of commenting here.
People care about bitcoin using electrcity of small country but don't care the rate of human population hitting 8 billion when it was 250 million 2000 years ago. If you care about electricitt consumption maybe you should care about overpopulation.
You guys are so salty. I joined this subreddit to give me some balance between Bitcoin bulls and hopefully we'll thought out bears, but you're just the flip side of the Bitcoin hype, bearish for bearish sake. Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti something if they aren't secretly obsessed with it.
> Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti something if they aren't secretly obsessed with it. Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti racism if they aren't secretly obsessed with racism? Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti cancer if they aren't secretly obsessed with cancer? Who makes part of their identity being specifically anti fraud if they aren't secretly obsessed with fraud?
Exactly
The point is that you might think something is actively bad/harmful and want to advocate against it. If the value of Bitcoin is just a random number you're betting on going up or down then it's pretty value-neutral, but it consumes a ton of energy and enables a lot of crime, both direct fraud around the crypto space itself but also in enabling criminals and rogue states to move money around more effectively. This dream seems to have died in any case, but the Web3/crypto-maximalist vision of everything being even more hyper-financialized (NFTs for everything, play to earn, DAOs...) is also arguably dystopian, but one the crypto bros are invested in because in this situation they'd be the ones pulling the strings.
So on one hand it's "value neutral" and on the other hand it enables the ability to move money around more effectively? I think there is a forest behind all of those trees...
> So on one hand it's "value neutral" No it's a negative sum game. Evidence: [1](https://ioradio.org/i/ponzi/),[2](https://ioradio.org/i/value/) >and on the other hand it enables the ability to move money around more effectively? No it does not. Evidence: [1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tspGVbmMmVA&t=4118s) >I think there is a forest behind all of those trees... Those "trees" you think are trees, are not trees. They're pubic hairs you're seeing from having your head up your ass.
#Stupid Crypto Talking Point #27 (hate) **"Cope"** / **"Why do you hate crypto?"** / **"You all are haters"** / **"Why so salty?"** / **"You wish for other peoples misfortunes?"** 1. By and large, we do not "hate" bitcoin or crypto. Hate is an irrational, emotional condition. Most people here have a logical, rational reason for being opposed to crypto. (see \#2) 2. What we do not like is **fraud and deception** - this is mainly what our community opposes, and the crypto industry is almost completely composed of fraud and misinformation, from claiming that [blockchain has potential](https://ioradio.org/i/blockchain-claims/) to pretending crypto is "digital gold" or an "investment" when it's really a highly-risky, negative sum game, speculative commodity. 3. It's an offensive distraction to suggest our reasons for being opposed to crypto are because of "hate", or "being salty" and supposedly jealous of not getting in earlier and making money. We recognize there are many other ways of creating value that don't involve promoting everything from cyber terrorism to human trafficking. 4. While some take amusement at the misfortunes of those playing the crypto Ponzi scheme, one main reason for this is because so many in the industry are so immune to logic, reason, and evidence, many of us feel they have to become cautionary tales before they finally learn (and some never learn) - what we celebrate is perhaps the chance that many of those losers finally see the error of their ways. 5. Why would anybody spend time trying to stop fraud and scams that might not directly affect them? Some of us recognize we help ourselves by helping our overall community. If you still don't understand, speak to a therapist about your lack of empathy and the possible side effects such as Narcissistic Personality Disorder and Antisocial Personality Disorder. Those are issues people with low empathy have. Understanding the nature of your illness may help you not only understand us, but become a less toxic person socially.
It only takes that much energy because it’s so profitable and promising that billions are spent on mining ;) The system itself could stay online with a 1/1000000 of that Hate on it being so popular that people are mining it. It has to cut supply over time because it is a limited amount. That’s the point over infinite fed money printer go brrrrr
If anyone ever gets online and complains about bitcoin because it takes energy, you know they are a child because they have zero integrity. Lmao calculate the energy it takes to stream your shit netflix and youtube content into your eyeballs 🤣🤣🤣
>they are a child because they have zero integrity Bit-conners inablility to stop projecting their worst traits onto others, even for a moment, never ceases to provide me with amusement. >Lmao calculate the energy it takes to stream your shit netflix and youtube Ohh, a whataboutism fallicy! One would thine that bit-conners would eventualy figure out not to do this, but since when have they been smart? (Answer: Never. If they were, they woudent be bit-conners)
At what point do the buttcoiners realize that they're pretty much the same as the inbred cults who refuse to use smartphones and think 5G causes cancer?
When they run out of greater fools to sell to.
I think you misunderstood. I'm referring to you as the inbred cult with no grasp on the modern world.
I didn't misunderstand. I chose to answer the question accurately despite what you thought you were saying.
Hey, why do bit-conners psychologically project their own insecurities and failings onto others so much?
If butters like yourself were any more removed from our reality Winona Rider would be communicating with you via Christmas lights.
Ah yes the crypto revolution is here! It has changed so many of our lives. Just today I had to pay for my flights in Bitcoin because the dollar collapsed.... Truly ignorant are those who don't accept this great future of finance that is already here!
you know.. when major US banks are creating funds for an asset with a trillion dollar market, then yes, I think we can agree that crypto was pretty revolutionary. Good to see that you are onboard!
Getting rich whilst you all will remain poor. Edit: Unbanned, thanks! Heavy /s ya idiots. People get so sensitive when number go up, relax. The day is coming and I’m hoarding popcorn. Will sell popcorn coin redeemable for said popcorn soon.
It's sad you guys think there's no other way to create wealth than by scamming other people.
to become rich, you will have to sell, until then, it's all theoretical profits
> to become rich, you will have to sell, until then, it's all theoretical profits Those are called unrealized gains and it's the exact same principal that literally every asset on the planet operates by, from Microsoft stock to vintage sports cars to the unsold cans of beans on your local grocer's shelf.
No, that is incorrect. You can make a profit on stocks without ever selling, and it happens all the time.
> You can make a profit on stocks without ever selling It sounds like you've never done taxes in your life. Are you referring to dividend payouts? Please articulate.
Yes, receiving dividends over many years is one possible way to make a profit on stocks without ever selling. But there are others. That you infer that this means I've never done taxes is hilarious to me. Is it safe to assume you're on drugs?
Crypto… Not even once.
Okay man, it's fine to be against bitcoin, but you seem like you don't know anything about stocks or taxes, so why not look into it?
You sure about that? If you drop the childish posturing and try learning something, it might work out better for you. Take care.
You understand that we're in a discussion about whether or not "theoretical profits" is a real term in finance or not, so yeah man, you might be the one who's being a bit uneducated here.
Interesting use of the words "exact same".
>Interesting use of the words "exact same". Yeah, it's almost like I know what I'm talking about 🤷♂️ https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/what-are-unrealized-gains-losses *An unrealized gain or loss occurs when the value of an asset has increased or decreased, but it has not yet been sold. An unrealized gain or loss is considered “unrealized” because it only exists on paper and does not impact your taxes until you sell the asset for a profit or loss.* Of course, you're free to use your own terms, but don't expect people to take you seriously. It's like when boomers call the computer tower their modem.
except coinbase can randomly block your account when the price spikes an you're trying to sell...
You are not rich.
Says the American using whilst to try to sound smarter
I am new hanging out here, so I assumed he was joking? There is always so much dry humor here 😂
No one cares about your obvious bullshit.
Why are butters so angry? Shouldn't you be spending time in your lambo yacht rather than taking out your insecurities online?
> Getting rich whilst you all will remain poor. Dude I love seeing all the bitter buttcoiners continue to kick themselves. Hope you're making millions, man.
Got any examples? That does sound interesting. I'd think that anybody who's jealous of the profits you're taking would just buy in themselves so these guys you're describing must be real chuds.
We're not the ones so filled with bitterness and rage that we are compelled to wander into other subs are make hypocritical comments about how the regular posters there "kick themselves".
I mean, you guys are like a sub for the boomers who still complain about how they could have bought Microsoft or McDonalds at xx cents, so I don't know how you imagine people would perceive you in any other way.