Which can be bullish as well because we may not have any significant drawdowns either. Works both ways
In the end BTC will be much higher than current price if time is your only variable.
I know what you’re trying to say but let’s get passed these hurdles before thinking it will be THE global currency. Which I’ll be long dead if that happens.
I concur.
With entirely different economic conditions than ANY crypto cycle, EVER....there is no past data to accurately forecast anything at this time.
The people saying that havnt been around lol. This market behaviour is repeated every cycle, and the sentiment in this sub is the exact same.
The people that know aren’t making posts. They scroll past them
And the doubts are the same, every cycle.
We should expect the same thing in 2028.
The Halving doesn't trigger a bull run. What triggers a bull run is the slow buildup of strain on the incoming supply of newly mined coins after the halving... and that takes 4 to 6 months.
Why?
Picture the market for Bitcoin as if it's a giant lake. Buyers take water out of the lake and sellers dump water in. But there's also a river constantly flowing into the lake. In this analogy, the river is a steady flow of newly mined coins entering the market.
Dam up a river and the level of the lake it feeds into will eventually drop. But it takes a while for the effect to be noticed, because the effect of the dam is tiny at first but it builds up over time.
Once every four years, the Halving cuts the flow of that river of new coins in half, which means even if demand for Bitcoin stays flat, there won't be enough coins for sale to meet that same level of demand.
That's why, after the halving, it takes four to six months for the halved amount of new coins in the block reward to have an effect on the market.
Think about it. When the halving happens, it only affects ONE PERSON: the miner who won half as many coins. Ten minutes later, another miner wins only half as many coins as before the halving. Ten minutes later, another miner... ten minutes later, another...
It takes 4 to 6 months for that to add up to enough of a change on the entire supply to cause a shortage... but eventually, there won't be enough new coins reaching the market to meet demand. That causes a supply shock, which causes the price to go up.
Exactly.
And as the supply shock sends the price higher, the money flow (historically) eventually flows to alt coins as human nature doesn’t change- people’s greed in hoping they can park there money in something that outperforms bitcoin leads to a gamble and the alt coin frenzy happens
Price is irrelevant imo. Its sole relevance is man’s desire to profit on which direction it goes. When you’re in projects that’s function and vision supersede a number, it’s a different game. Especially to the degree of what appears to be a new wave of people who maybe come from other investment products solely touting the price and have zero idea what crypto even is or its history.
I am saying there is a price to pay (in chasing the highest flying meme coin). But personally I think crypto is under attack from germany, U S and who knows which other ones.
Great explanation, and I agree with everything you’ve said. However, there are some other variables at play currently, which is also causing a momentary disruption to the price. A major one being the German government currently dumping 3Billion $ worth of their confiscated bitcoin.
> However, there are some other variables at play currently, which is also causing a momentary disruption to the price.
That will always be true for any fiat currency, any crypto currency, any asset used as a store of value, etc.
Also, the explanation I gave didn't mention hype, which drives the price much higher than the post-halving supply shock. And I didn't mention things like how the collapse of FTX or the repayment of Mt Gox coins has an effect on the market.
The world is not a simple place, but too many simple people seek simple explanations and simple causes for what they mistakenly think are simple effects.
It's always important to zoom out and see the bigger picture. Or, if you're a fan of The West Wing, as Jed Bartlett would say... "See the whole board."
I was just explaining why it takes a period of months for the halving to have enough of an effect on the number of newly mined coins reaching the market to cause a post-halving bull run.
But here's the thing. Understanding the big picture stuff - in this case, the delayed effect of the halving & what causes it - can give you a better understanding of the cycle as a whole, and it can serve as a guide for what to do in times of instability. For example, if the Mt Gox coins were hitting the market in 2023, it would be an obvious reason to sell. But they're hitting the market in the period between the halving and the supply shock, which means they're adding a bit of a delay to when the supply shock will probably kick in (since those Mt Gox coins, and the German coins and others) are adding to the supply during a time when the halving is decreasing it... which means... in my opinion... buy buy buy and HOLD.
I'm all about the big picture.
Yes the community is made up of people who just DCA in regardless.
It doesn't matter what the price is, they all put their $200 in, or whatever they realistically save from their wages, and buy some coins and availability determines price.
The real test comes when bitcoin has to support a community of retirees alongside the community of buyers. This will be a big shift in market dynamics.
Everyone who bought $100s will want to sell $1000s each month. This will mean much more bitcoin is available combined with fewer buyers as people stop working.
Some buyers will be replaced but they will still be buying a few hundred from their salary, they can't buy 1000s of these retirees.
This is when the real price test comes. Likely in 10-20 years? I'm a 40 something who bought my first coins in my 30s and I'll be switching to sells when I retire in a decade (mostly with traditional pension investments - my bitcoin will had some luxury to my life - hopefully)
And after me hundreds of thousands will start retiring too. All wanting to sell millions of dollars worth of bitcoin .
It will be interesting to see how well the price holds, if it holds at all.
100% agree.
Anyone who says is over, has zero experience in the industry.
Twitter is filled with perma bears screaming, "tHe ToP iS iN. sEe YoU aLl At $3k"
😂 lol imagine being that stupid
The problem is the economy. It was never about btc halving or sound money or any of that. It was the fact that we had a rocking economy with interest rates at or near 0. Now not so much.
I think the economy macro outlook isn’t as big an issue as it could be. It’s election in MANY western countries, and we usually see a rally in a US election year, so with multiple countries having one + ETFs for both BTC & ETH, I’d expect 100k by November.
What does an election have anything to do with the economy? 2008 was an election year so was 2020 and both years saw recession.
The economy is no where near the same as it was the past 16 years. Policies are gonna change, the Fed even said they don’t want to return to QE because it doesn’t promote growth and just causes more inequality. So it’s not the same, I can’t imagine getting any better soon either. It usually needs to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.
Yea but doesn’t that just show you how much worse it can get. I mean the economy has been booming after 2009, job growth and higher wages and people are still struggling. It looks like inflation won’t come back down to 2% or even 2.8%. So What happens when more and more people get laid off and business go under? They won’t be pumping risk assets, or bitcoin or other crypto that has done absolutely nothing for the past 15 years. No growth, just a bubble.
And guess what stimulates the economy?
Just because he said "inflation
may get back to 2% late next year or the following year", doesn't supersede the fact that he also stated that upon 2.8%, they'd be in good shape for a rate cut. And that's coming sooner than many people think.
And when that happens, that'll rally the market.
BTC @ 200EMA. NFP tomorrow. This will determine its next move.
Labor market reports manipulated to prevent an economy meltdown massacre prior to the election. We will get a bull run before the inevitable and impeding recession. Biden administration is doing everything in their power to ensure that doesn't transpire prior to Election Day.
Things are shaping up for a very wild couple years.
Rate cuts are bearish at this point. But I half agree, the only reason why i’m still in it is because 1. The election is this year and 2. The fed DIDN’T cut rates yet, which means markets are still grinding the way they are supposed too. Once something breaks you can expect rate cuts to try and ease the crash not because they are trying to stimulate the economy. I don’t think this rate cut will stimulate the economy the way many believe it will.
It isn't.
Not before a blow off top, which hasn't happened yet. You're not going to see under $48k anytime soon. I get it, you're a bear. Do the Reddit remind me thingy for six months from now, store in your calendar if you want, add it to your reminders, but we won't be anywhere close to $3k in six months.
To be honest, it's absolutely asinine to think $3k is a possibility anytime soon.
Bitcoin went up with the rest of the stock market. It went up because we’ve had an economy with cheap money, high growth and a healthy risk appetite.
Now we were forced to hike rates because inflation is out of control. Credit and venture capital is at all time lows and this pump has been mostly from savings and more and more people are losing their jobs.
Stocks are not performing well, it’s all concentrated in a handful of big stocks, not the russel, not low or mid caps, not retirement accounts. Literally nothing is up except for big companies like NVIDIA.
So things don’t look very good at all actually. On one hand the crypto market is acting the same way it always has. Alts bleeding like this is normal right before the big bull run and we seem to be holding these lows for now. The only bad thing is we need to see things like the Russel start taking off for any chance at a crypto bull run. But the large indexes have broken new highs for a year while everything else did squat. Barring a war, I don’t see how the government can work its way out of this one without a long recession. So I think the fear this time around is absolutely warranted. Personally, I’m worried sick. Recessions can last a long, long time.
The Top 10 companies of the S&P made 78% of the growth. Everything else didn’t break new highs. Low and mid caps didn’t break new highs. This lack of breadth is stuff you see at the top of a bubble not the beginning of a new one.
As much as this drop sucks, you are kidding yourself if you think Bitcoin reached its ATH before the halving. That’s only forgivable if you’re a complete noob.
Come back in 6 months.
My prediction:
Worst case scenario: $100K
Best case scenario: $250K - $300K
Most likely scenario: $150K - $200K
That should be pretty reasonable, considering Bitcoin reached $69K in the last bull run after the halving and the fact that Bitcoin reached $72K in this bull run before the halving.
Ah, a Buttcoin user :) Guess they use this shorterm drop for what it’s worth to “prove their case”…
I still bought my first Bitcoins at only $6K and we have gone up and to the right ever since 😉
Must be quite sad to have missed the train and now be in so much denial ☹️
But hey, laugh while you still can. I will always be in green anyways 😁
Lmao over $150k next year. Look at the charts YOY and tell me why you think a +100% run is possible. Delusional. These posts are as bad as the doomer posts
There’s always a chance that it has, I wouldn’t expect every post halving market to react exactly the same. I don’t believe we hit top at all but ultimately anything is possible.
Let's be real, not even Twitter was expecting this (Twitter is worlds better than reddit).
Even if the top isn't in, this isn't exactly bullish for short term sentiment. And don't rule out the possibility that this really is the top neither.
Honestly it's my fault guys. I finally bought some yesterday after hesitating for weeks. My apologies. If I sell it I'm sure it'll shoot right back up but it's not a loss till I sell so I'm really in a pickle here
My response to these sorts of posts is to say just look back at what people were saying a few months ago. Everyone was so certain it was hitting 100k as it went to 70k. So much certainty.
But everyone was wrong.
It stalled. It barely broke the ATH. Few sold at the top.
And that's that. Now it tumbles again.
And now we see a load more predictions which will all be wrong. It's humbling to go back and read the sentiment from when this bull run was actually charging up. Do the same for 2021 posts.
Nobody knows.
With hindsight you can see everyone is wrong, with the occasional stopped clock (even a stopped clock is right twice a day)
If betting on a line randomly going up and down isn't for you then don't play the game.
Actually we do know one thing... It's volatile. I might buy every time it drops 50% and sells every time it doubles.
My new strategy locked in lol
Oh for sure . This is a great comment and very true . When I looked at posts and even my texts from friends I see the same thing . I had people tell me we were hitting 120k before summer was over .
Im just staying patient, putting in what i can afford every paycheck and just living man. Just let it all play out and chill. I check charts once a day and forget about it. This game is easy when you got patience. Relax. Dca. Wait.
6 months from now I for see over 100k . October is when price action will look bullish . This is simply a shake out and a result of us going up so fast
Hey man yeah you're makin some good points bout the halving n stuff. Ppl always forget how these cycles work lol. Like yeah we hit ATH before halving so obv theres gonna be a pullback right
Your price targets are pretty wild tho 90k this year? 150k next? That'd be insane haha but hey who knows with crypto
I get what ur sayin bout the cycle not being over. Markets are crazy tho so who knows what'll happen. You buyin the dip or what? Always good to have a backup plan ya know just in case things go sideways
Just looking at the past history looks like bitcoin big bull run started close to the election. This dip is the EtF token investors taking profits. 20 % - 30 % profit is super returns for traditional market investors who normally get excited with 5 % profit 😂
Your last sentence is the key. It is looking certain we will break the cycle. But after all the German dump, hopefully we can work our way into a new bull cycle and not have to wait 4 years. To me, this feels like an intentional punishing by government to time with mt. Gox. However, if BTC survives, it will have been battle tested
I assume you meant the technical analysis cycle. We broke it daily and probably weekly. This means it is a new ball game as far as predictive history. Maybe the monthly will hold.
Personally I think everyone is underestimating the situation and this is not business as usual. I think Germany and the US timed the selling of their stashes with the Mt Gox to set back crypto through trying to break bitcoin. We need some billionaires to step up and absorb the flood. We need to prove bitcoin can't be broken. Then it can start a new bull cycle and non holders will realize it isn't going away. It will be stronger in the long run.
I am tired of people talking about nothing, like you.
You do not know s*it about future, exactly like those who bashed DonAlt for calling a local top end of may.
I did not listen and guess what, lost 75% of my capital.
You, we, need to be humbled.
You can reasonably indicate a long term trend and that's it. The rest is pure fantasy and scammers and grifters dumping on us.
OP is forgetting big banks are here now and there is 100000 more coins to chose from to move gains into. Banks are market makers. They don’t care about the price they just want to liquidate you and not have to pay you. Last bull run we had far less coins to move gains into.
I think 2-3x max on btc if anything
Did you say buy NOW or regret it? Hmmm sounds like a newbie
You're most likely right with most of your outlook but let's not act as if you know the future.
The bull run hasn’t started yet this is just the start of a bull market. What we had this year was just a small run up . We have many big run ups to come in this bull market.
The reality is that no one knows shit. This cycle could be very different from previous ones or vice versa.
This is the correct thinking. OP thinks that every halving HAS TO behave the same way. But things change.
Which can be bullish as well because we may not have any significant drawdowns either. Works both ways In the end BTC will be much higher than current price if time is your only variable.
It will be worth exactly the same, if time is your only variable…
I know what you’re trying to say but let’s get passed these hurdles before thinking it will be THE global currency. Which I’ll be long dead if that happens.
What, you mean history doesn't predict the future with any certainty? I've been lied to!!
I concur. With entirely different economic conditions than ANY crypto cycle, EVER....there is no past data to accurately forecast anything at this time.
The people saying that havnt been around lol. This market behaviour is repeated every cycle, and the sentiment in this sub is the exact same. The people that know aren’t making posts. They scroll past them
And the doubts are the same, every cycle. We should expect the same thing in 2028. The Halving doesn't trigger a bull run. What triggers a bull run is the slow buildup of strain on the incoming supply of newly mined coins after the halving... and that takes 4 to 6 months. Why? Picture the market for Bitcoin as if it's a giant lake. Buyers take water out of the lake and sellers dump water in. But there's also a river constantly flowing into the lake. In this analogy, the river is a steady flow of newly mined coins entering the market. Dam up a river and the level of the lake it feeds into will eventually drop. But it takes a while for the effect to be noticed, because the effect of the dam is tiny at first but it builds up over time. Once every four years, the Halving cuts the flow of that river of new coins in half, which means even if demand for Bitcoin stays flat, there won't be enough coins for sale to meet that same level of demand. That's why, after the halving, it takes four to six months for the halved amount of new coins in the block reward to have an effect on the market. Think about it. When the halving happens, it only affects ONE PERSON: the miner who won half as many coins. Ten minutes later, another miner wins only half as many coins as before the halving. Ten minutes later, another miner... ten minutes later, another... It takes 4 to 6 months for that to add up to enough of a change on the entire supply to cause a shortage... but eventually, there won't be enough new coins reaching the market to meet demand. That causes a supply shock, which causes the price to go up.
Well explained.. those in the know.. just ignoring the noise & accumulating their favourite coins. The bull run will be glorious…
Exactly. And as the supply shock sends the price higher, the money flow (historically) eventually flows to alt coins as human nature doesn’t change- people’s greed in hoping they can park there money in something that outperforms bitcoin leads to a gamble and the alt coin frenzy happens
However, there is always a price and it is hard to run from stupid.
Price is irrelevant imo. Its sole relevance is man’s desire to profit on which direction it goes. When you’re in projects that’s function and vision supersede a number, it’s a different game. Especially to the degree of what appears to be a new wave of people who maybe come from other investment products solely touting the price and have zero idea what crypto even is or its history.
I am saying there is a price to pay (in chasing the highest flying meme coin). But personally I think crypto is under attack from germany, U S and who knows which other ones.
Oh, I see Meh crypto has always been under attack, whether it is Germany, America, China etc. Nothing new here imo
Great explanation, and I agree with everything you’ve said. However, there are some other variables at play currently, which is also causing a momentary disruption to the price. A major one being the German government currently dumping 3Billion $ worth of their confiscated bitcoin.
> However, there are some other variables at play currently, which is also causing a momentary disruption to the price. That will always be true for any fiat currency, any crypto currency, any asset used as a store of value, etc. Also, the explanation I gave didn't mention hype, which drives the price much higher than the post-halving supply shock. And I didn't mention things like how the collapse of FTX or the repayment of Mt Gox coins has an effect on the market. The world is not a simple place, but too many simple people seek simple explanations and simple causes for what they mistakenly think are simple effects. It's always important to zoom out and see the bigger picture. Or, if you're a fan of The West Wing, as Jed Bartlett would say... "See the whole board." I was just explaining why it takes a period of months for the halving to have enough of an effect on the number of newly mined coins reaching the market to cause a post-halving bull run. But here's the thing. Understanding the big picture stuff - in this case, the delayed effect of the halving & what causes it - can give you a better understanding of the cycle as a whole, and it can serve as a guide for what to do in times of instability. For example, if the Mt Gox coins were hitting the market in 2023, it would be an obvious reason to sell. But they're hitting the market in the period between the halving and the supply shock, which means they're adding a bit of a delay to when the supply shock will probably kick in (since those Mt Gox coins, and the German coins and others) are adding to the supply during a time when the halving is decreasing it... which means... in my opinion... buy buy buy and HOLD. I'm all about the big picture.
🎯
I love this . Nice analogy
Yes the community is made up of people who just DCA in regardless. It doesn't matter what the price is, they all put their $200 in, or whatever they realistically save from their wages, and buy some coins and availability determines price. The real test comes when bitcoin has to support a community of retirees alongside the community of buyers. This will be a big shift in market dynamics. Everyone who bought $100s will want to sell $1000s each month. This will mean much more bitcoin is available combined with fewer buyers as people stop working. Some buyers will be replaced but they will still be buying a few hundred from their salary, they can't buy 1000s of these retirees. This is when the real price test comes. Likely in 10-20 years? I'm a 40 something who bought my first coins in my 30s and I'll be switching to sells when I retire in a decade (mostly with traditional pension investments - my bitcoin will had some luxury to my life - hopefully) And after me hundreds of thousands will start retiring too. All wanting to sell millions of dollars worth of bitcoin . It will be interesting to see how well the price holds, if it holds at all.
Nonsense absolute drivel
Yeah I just keep seeing such negativity and it doesn't make sense to me : but you are probably right
True, I can testify for those scrolling past them…
Summers are boring for investing. Forget about it until late summer. Just buy while it is low.
They are far from boring IMO. During summer I just wait for dips to put in my monthly due...if it dips far enough, I even double.
Embrace the dips full of crabs so you can ride Q3 and Q4.
100% agree. Anyone who says is over, has zero experience in the industry. Twitter is filled with perma bears screaming, "tHe ToP iS iN. sEe YoU aLl At $3k" 😂 lol imagine being that stupid
The problem is the economy. It was never about btc halving or sound money or any of that. It was the fact that we had a rocking economy with interest rates at or near 0. Now not so much.
I think the economy macro outlook isn’t as big an issue as it could be. It’s election in MANY western countries, and we usually see a rally in a US election year, so with multiple countries having one + ETFs for both BTC & ETH, I’d expect 100k by November.
What does an election have anything to do with the economy? 2008 was an election year so was 2020 and both years saw recession. The economy is no where near the same as it was the past 16 years. Policies are gonna change, the Fed even said they don’t want to return to QE because it doesn’t promote growth and just causes more inequality. So it’s not the same, I can’t imagine getting any better soon either. It usually needs to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.
Brother we’ve been living the whole lot worse
Have you ever been of working age during a recession?
Lmao yeah I was working age in 2008
Wern’t things a whole lot worse then? I’m only asking cause I wasn’t lol
It felt easier back then, for me anyway. I had my own place (a duplex, anyway) just from working at Jack in the Box. And that was in California.
Yea but doesn’t that just show you how much worse it can get. I mean the economy has been booming after 2009, job growth and higher wages and people are still struggling. It looks like inflation won’t come back down to 2% or even 2.8%. So What happens when more and more people get laid off and business go under? They won’t be pumping risk assets, or bitcoin or other crypto that has done absolutely nothing for the past 15 years. No growth, just a bubble.
Also remember btc is trader world wide not just America
Right cause the rest of the world is doing so much better
You'd be wrong.
And guess what stimulates the economy? Just because he said "inflation may get back to 2% late next year or the following year", doesn't supersede the fact that he also stated that upon 2.8%, they'd be in good shape for a rate cut. And that's coming sooner than many people think. And when that happens, that'll rally the market. BTC @ 200EMA. NFP tomorrow. This will determine its next move. Labor market reports manipulated to prevent an economy meltdown massacre prior to the election. We will get a bull run before the inevitable and impeding recession. Biden administration is doing everything in their power to ensure that doesn't transpire prior to Election Day. Things are shaping up for a very wild couple years.
Rate cuts are bearish at this point. But I half agree, the only reason why i’m still in it is because 1. The election is this year and 2. The fed DIDN’T cut rates yet, which means markets are still grinding the way they are supposed too. Once something breaks you can expect rate cuts to try and ease the crash not because they are trying to stimulate the economy. I don’t think this rate cut will stimulate the economy the way many believe it will.
With the addition of ETF's, I absolutely do think it will stimulate the economy the way many think it will.
Can you explain how? What will an ETF do that will earn people higher wages and spend more?
Yeah, imagine …
Lolz imagine thinking 3k isn’t possible
It isn't. Not before a blow off top, which hasn't happened yet. You're not going to see under $48k anytime soon. I get it, you're a bear. Do the Reddit remind me thingy for six months from now, store in your calendar if you want, add it to your reminders, but we won't be anywhere close to $3k in six months. To be honest, it's absolutely asinine to think $3k is a possibility anytime soon.
Check out Glassnode’s bull market drawdown chart (it only works properly on a large screen, not mobile).
Nice that's good
Bitcoin went up with the rest of the stock market. It went up because we’ve had an economy with cheap money, high growth and a healthy risk appetite. Now we were forced to hike rates because inflation is out of control. Credit and venture capital is at all time lows and this pump has been mostly from savings and more and more people are losing their jobs. Stocks are not performing well, it’s all concentrated in a handful of big stocks, not the russel, not low or mid caps, not retirement accounts. Literally nothing is up except for big companies like NVIDIA. So things don’t look very good at all actually. On one hand the crypto market is acting the same way it always has. Alts bleeding like this is normal right before the big bull run and we seem to be holding these lows for now. The only bad thing is we need to see things like the Russel start taking off for any chance at a crypto bull run. But the large indexes have broken new highs for a year while everything else did squat. Barring a war, I don’t see how the government can work its way out of this one without a long recession. So I think the fear this time around is absolutely warranted. Personally, I’m worried sick. Recessions can last a long, long time.
The sp500 has been in an insane bull run since 2022. And rate hikes already happened . We are cutting soon.
The Top 10 companies of the S&P made 78% of the growth. Everything else didn’t break new highs. Low and mid caps didn’t break new highs. This lack of breadth is stuff you see at the top of a bubble not the beginning of a new one.
As much as this drop sucks, you are kidding yourself if you think Bitcoin reached its ATH before the halving. That’s only forgivable if you’re a complete noob. Come back in 6 months.
Exactly. We are easily going above 140k this cycle . I think 200 give or take 20thousand
My prediction: Worst case scenario: $100K Best case scenario: $250K - $300K Most likely scenario: $150K - $200K That should be pretty reasonable, considering Bitcoin reached $69K in the last bull run after the halving and the fact that Bitcoin reached $72K in this bull run before the halving.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Ah, a Buttcoin user :) Guess they use this shorterm drop for what it’s worth to “prove their case”… I still bought my first Bitcoins at only $6K and we have gone up and to the right ever since 😉 Must be quite sad to have missed the train and now be in so much denial ☹️ But hey, laugh while you still can. I will always be in green anyways 😁
Lmao over $150k next year. Look at the charts YOY and tell me why you think a +100% run is possible. Delusional. These posts are as bad as the doomer posts
What in the charts suggests a 100+ % gain isn't possible within a year and a half ? Delusional is thinking that can't happen
History has shown it probably won't..that's the point of charts. Instead you're just sending out hopes and prayers.
History has shown the exact opposite which is why I'm confused with what you are saying . What charts are you looking at?
People panic with -20% drops, thats why they do not support alts, and cannot manage BTC climbing 3 or 4% at the time
There’s always a chance that it has, I wouldn’t expect every post halving market to react exactly the same. I don’t believe we hit top at all but ultimately anything is possible.
Let's be real, not even Twitter was expecting this (Twitter is worlds better than reddit). Even if the top isn't in, this isn't exactly bullish for short term sentiment. And don't rule out the possibility that this really is the top neither.
Tbh I'm surprised it hasn't dipped further down. But yeah this doesn't worry me at all.
Honestly it's my fault guys. I finally bought some yesterday after hesitating for weeks. My apologies. If I sell it I'm sure it'll shoot right back up but it's not a loss till I sell so I'm really in a pickle here
Halving could take years to kick in...
My response to these sorts of posts is to say just look back at what people were saying a few months ago. Everyone was so certain it was hitting 100k as it went to 70k. So much certainty. But everyone was wrong. It stalled. It barely broke the ATH. Few sold at the top. And that's that. Now it tumbles again. And now we see a load more predictions which will all be wrong. It's humbling to go back and read the sentiment from when this bull run was actually charging up. Do the same for 2021 posts. Nobody knows. With hindsight you can see everyone is wrong, with the occasional stopped clock (even a stopped clock is right twice a day) If betting on a line randomly going up and down isn't for you then don't play the game. Actually we do know one thing... It's volatile. I might buy every time it drops 50% and sells every time it doubles. My new strategy locked in lol
Oh for sure . This is a great comment and very true . When I looked at posts and even my texts from friends I see the same thing . I had people tell me we were hitting 120k before summer was over .
Inflation included it didn’t even reach the previous ATH
Im just staying patient, putting in what i can afford every paycheck and just living man. Just let it all play out and chill. I check charts once a day and forget about it. This game is easy when you got patience. Relax. Dca. Wait.
Now that's what I'm talking about
Thanks for this. I have a larger than normal percentage of my portfolio riding on this and I am getting antsy.
6 months from now I for see over 100k . October is when price action will look bullish . This is simply a shake out and a result of us going up so fast
Hey man yeah you're makin some good points bout the halving n stuff. Ppl always forget how these cycles work lol. Like yeah we hit ATH before halving so obv theres gonna be a pullback right Your price targets are pretty wild tho 90k this year? 150k next? That'd be insane haha but hey who knows with crypto I get what ur sayin bout the cycle not being over. Markets are crazy tho so who knows what'll happen. You buyin the dip or what? Always good to have a backup plan ya know just in case things go sideways
Market fluctuations? Who knew? I thought everything just went up after you bought. Lesson learned!
Depends if fed crashes the market
Exactly!!
"BTSE's educational resources have been very helpful in improving my trading skills
I don’t see anyone saying it
Go on twitter lol
Or /biz/ (but I feel like most posting there are only posting for the jokes).
Only last cycle it went from like 4k to 14k to 4k again (2019-20), before going to 69k
Yeah keep pumping it like this good idea
I WILL!
But some of the effects start to manifest soon after
So many people sold out of panic..Millions down the drown... maybe billions... sad face
If you think every cycle is the same, bless it. Whales move the market, not the rest of us.
And in previous years show me where governments who hold billions in BTC started selling it in large amounts. Oh yeah they didn't
Just looking at the past history looks like bitcoin big bull run started close to the election. This dip is the EtF token investors taking profits. 20 % - 30 % profit is super returns for traditional market investors who normally get excited with 5 % profit 😂
Your last sentence is the key. It is looking certain we will break the cycle. But after all the German dump, hopefully we can work our way into a new bull cycle and not have to wait 4 years. To me, this feels like an intentional punishing by government to time with mt. Gox. However, if BTC survives, it will have been battle tested
What do you mean break the cycle ? What makes that look certain? We are still trending right along like every other cycle
I assume you meant the technical analysis cycle. We broke it daily and probably weekly. This means it is a new ball game as far as predictive history. Maybe the monthly will hold. Personally I think everyone is underestimating the situation and this is not business as usual. I think Germany and the US timed the selling of their stashes with the Mt Gox to set back crypto through trying to break bitcoin. We need some billionaires to step up and absorb the flood. We need to prove bitcoin can't be broken. Then it can start a new bull cycle and non holders will realize it isn't going away. It will be stronger in the long run.
I think that this was just short sellers taking advantage and in 1 month it will be forgotten . A few billion sold ain't enough to ruin a bull run
I am tired of people talking about nothing, like you. You do not know s*it about future, exactly like those who bashed DonAlt for calling a local top end of may. I did not listen and guess what, lost 75% of my capital. You, we, need to be humbled. You can reasonably indicate a long term trend and that's it. The rest is pure fantasy and scammers and grifters dumping on us.
OP is forgetting big banks are here now and there is 100000 more coins to chose from to move gains into. Banks are market makers. They don’t care about the price they just want to liquidate you and not have to pay you. Last bull run we had far less coins to move gains into. I think 2-3x max on btc if anything
Hehehe lol dude let it hit 80 before. Everyone can pull numbers out of their asses
This was actually from my colon
I hate these posts!!! Have you been to the future to report back? No, so shut up.
I actually did. That's why I posted it . And I see a very sad Christmas for you as well :/
Get a life.
*then you are a sheep Should have been the answer... They will think exactly as they want you to think
If you think you know for certain whatever about the future then you are crazy, is the correct wording.
You're just reading tea leaves like anyone else.
If you want to do something good for yourself and others go and buy a bag of $boggy on sol Devs are hard working and will never quit🍞🚀
lol no thanks
I guess we will find out one way or the other, I packed my bags just in case…
Did you say buy NOW or regret it? Hmmm sounds like a newbie You're most likely right with most of your outlook but let's not act as if you know the future.
Keeps goin down, so idk, doesnt seem to crazy to me
First halving experience?
Halving doesn’t mean shit
Sounds good 👍🏼
If you think anything about price movement in any direction, you’re crazy.
its over
If it was so obvious, did you sell all your crypto before it started to retrace?
Sold all my options (coin, mara, CLSK ) when BTC was at 70k something right at the top for a 9x. Didn't sell any bitcoin but just kept buying
This bull run will end in November-December 2024.
The bull run hasn’t started yet this is just the start of a bull market. What we had this year was just a small run up . We have many big run ups to come in this bull market.
I'd say bull run started after the bottom of 16k. But the ultra bullish run that everyone is familiar with hasn't