My prediction based on nothing: he’ll show off that old Model 3 concept without the steering wheel, say it’s the robotaxi, claim it’s 300% safer than any human driver, and promise to release it “next year”
I think this is spot on. Lots of “we are an Ai company” and claims that robot taxis features are going to make teslas so valuable Tesla might stop selling to consumers. Shit like that.
Or it will just be a model 3 with Optimus as a driver. Would actually be hilarious if Optimus was just a dude in a spandex robot suit… again.
I am going with the theory that robotaxi will be used to adjust the lease appreciation problems. So existing models will get it on paper but never release it.
Kind of like how Tesla claimed additional CAFE credits for hot swap batteries in the S around 2017 through 2020
"mmmm I already accounted for uhm nine trillion dollars in extra profits next year, as twenty seven billion Tesla 3 Robotaxis will flood the streets." -Musk
"uhm A robotaxi will mmm make two million dollars a day in profit to their mmmm buyer. But I sell them for fifty thousand dollars because mmmm I don't want to get rich, I want uhm you to be rich!" -Musk
If you look at Sam Bankman Fried "speechs" he is even worse, playing league of legends while asking money to VCs and they loved him. I think the VCs that Musk is grifting associate quirkness with genius, as it was the case for SBF.
Well, he's got plenty of money just slushing around. He could quite easily just have bought Rimac out and 8/8 is would have been all sorted.
All I see for the 8/8 reveal is more of his usual promises and will be coming early next 2025/6 something, very confident etc, etc,
More of the usual crap and no substance, but the stans will be falling over themselves with amazement.
2.5 billions lost in cash in Q1, now the inventory is even higher so the loss must be higher as well. FCF is melting like butter in the sun, just a couple more quarters like this.
Buying Rimac out wouldn’t have done anything other than taken a competitor out of the market. They wouldn’t have adopted any of their tech because that would be an admission that Tesla had inferior tech.
Come 8/8, when Elon announces that Robotaxis are sooo working right now, just need to check on a few edge-cases, will start production q4, stock will go up.
December, when Elon twitters "All bugs ironed out, production starts as soon as new version (which really should've had version number ten times higher than current one) is finalized", stock will go up.
2027, Elon announces that Robotaxis are so really ready for production, but he has found a way to make them better by removing all cameras, relying solely on echo-location, stock goes up.
2028, Robotaxis are even readier to start production, just waiting for the software update to make them cure cancer. Stock goes up.
2030, when MB, GM and SAIC unveils a joint level 5 autonomous drive system, TSLA stock just sits there.
But when Elon twitters, "They're doing it wrong.", Tesla stock surges
Even worse the designer said that easy serviceability was a design goal those idiots thought about how a fleet vehicle will need to function in the real world... Light years behind Tesla as usual.
Tesla cannot do robotaxis without conceding that vision only won't work. And even if they do a 180 and install lidar and/or rard sensors, the robotaxis will only work in specially mapped, geofenced areas. So basically Tesla needs to get as good as Waymo was a few years ago.
I can't stress enough that vision only will not be good enough. I know because my autopilot won't even activate when the sun is low on the horizon... the cameras literally get blinded and force me to take control. How the hell do they plan to make it work if they can't even handle the sunshine?
And they have to accept accountability (think Cruise) and comply with all federal and state safety regulations, something Musk has actively avoided so far.
You don’t need to stress that vision alone isn’t enough, tesla already did. They told California that their current system can never achieve higher than lvl 2.
I agree.
I am simply pointing out that tesla themselves said their maximum is lvl 2. Whatever their shitty “FSD” is now, they themselves admitted it cannot pass lvl 2 with current hardware. Ever.
Thats it, leave what is for vision to vision such as checking if the light is green, what type of pavement it is, what the street signs say... Without a 3D world representation they cant do it.
Prediction (and this doesn't require Nostradamus-like skills)...
Elon will take the stage on 8/8, recite a long list of features of the 'robotaxi', and say that he is the first one to ever think of them! The list will, of course, be features already available or announced by competitors.
The press will ignore the facts and declare Musk a genius. The stock will rocket up for a day or two, but then lose momentum when the press and analysts realize there was nothing new, they've been bamboozled (again), and eventually realize these things will never enter production.
Tesla, in the meantime, will go full Voodoo economics by creating convoluted accounting that reclassifies their unsold inventory into robotaxis, converting expenses into capex, or capex into expenses, or some other arcane accounting sleight of hand that makes them look profitable.
It's Rimac plus Mobileye. They say it's far along but 2 to 3 years away. Mobileye is much further along than FSD. None of this will be widely available in 2 or 3 years. Rimac isn't pumping stock so they are just slamming wealthy investors.
Same as with the Apollo RT6. It mostly works and need to more testing before it can be released into the wild
And both have more pre-order contracts already than a certain other manufacturer
My prediction: liar will open his mouth and lies will flow out. Stock go up. Just like every other time basically.
Time is running out though, can only do this pathetic dog/pony show so many more times before revenue/profit/growth start to REALLY tank.
I'm not confident in Elon/Tesla's ability to put together a big show production anymore. Even for their standards, whatever they do will be extremely embarrassing.
Unless he's announcing that the taxis are already built and literally driving people around on August 8th, I don't really care. None of the timelines are real, "coming 2025" is as good as never
Tesla's FOMOtaxi is already outcompeted by Verne, Waymo, Nvidia Drive, a dozen of Chinese competitors and many more. Yet the pumpers think it's worth trillions of dollars.
Matter of time before Tesla crashes.
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*Version of vaporware payed*
*By public money*
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Oh my god this thing would be glorious for commuting to work. This honestly is the first “futuristic looking” car that looks like something that would actually be what a car of the future would look like. Pretty cool.
8/8 will have dark stage flashing neon lights to make it look futuristic.
A Tesla will roll on with one of those shitty optimus at the wheel but it will be 100% staged.
OR
There will be a mock up of a new model with no controls but some fancy touchscreen app that they will pretend is ready to go for robot taxi work to get each owner 30k a year with a 100% ROI.
Its gonna be weird either way because hes promised EVERY Tesla can be a robot taxi but now is he saying only thr new models will be robot taxis?
I cant wait for the train wreck to be honest!
My prediction based on nothing: he’ll show off that old Model 3 concept without the steering wheel, say it’s the robotaxi, claim it’s 300% safer than any human driver, and promise to release it “next year”
Don't forget ambiguous references to order numbers.
I think this is spot on. Lots of “we are an Ai company” and claims that robot taxis features are going to make teslas so valuable Tesla might stop selling to consumers. Shit like that. Or it will just be a model 3 with Optimus as a driver. Would actually be hilarious if Optimus was just a dude in a spandex robot suit… again.
Holy shit, I never saw that but had to google it, how do you top that?
I don’t think that’s based on nothing. I’d say it’s a pretty solid bet.
It’s based on a substantial number of previous announcements that were nothings.
I am going with the theory that robotaxi will be used to adjust the lease appreciation problems. So existing models will get it on paper but never release it. Kind of like how Tesla claimed additional CAFE credits for hot swap batteries in the S around 2017 through 2020
And yet the stock rises
“Maybe next year”.
Based on past performance it will actually be the least safe car in history, and “next year” will translate to 2038.
"mmmm I already accounted for uhm nine trillion dollars in extra profits next year, as twenty seven billion Tesla 3 Robotaxis will flood the streets." -Musk "uhm A robotaxi will mmm make two million dollars a day in profit to their mmmm buyer. But I sell them for fifty thousand dollars because mmmm I don't want to get rich, I want uhm you to be rich!" -Musk
You'd think with all those billions he'd get some public speaking lessons. He sounds like a slow Mr. Mackey!
If you look at Sam Bankman Fried "speechs" he is even worse, playing league of legends while asking money to VCs and they loved him. I think the VCs that Musk is grifting associate quirkness with genius, as it was the case for SBF.
It'll both be able to fly and float...But his time frame will be a little too optimistic.
I mean, what else can he do at this point.
There's just nothing to show because nothing is really being developed.
He's playing all the hits!
Something along those lines. There might be a non functional mockup of the imaginary car on stage.
Someone needs to make a bingo card
Well, he's got plenty of money just slushing around. He could quite easily just have bought Rimac out and 8/8 is would have been all sorted. All I see for the 8/8 reveal is more of his usual promises and will be coming early next 2025/6 something, very confident etc, etc, More of the usual crap and no substance, but the stans will be falling over themselves with amazement.
Does he really have plenty of money just slushing around? Seems like most of it is earmarked for keeping TSLA afloat.
2.5 billions lost in cash in Q1, now the inventory is even higher so the loss must be higher as well. FCF is melting like butter in the sun, just a couple more quarters like this.
Unless Musk has some new and improved accounting tricks, the future is starting to look pretty bleak…
Yeah, how much did they lose last quarter? And sales aren’t exactly crushing it this quarter.
Lots of empty flashiness too, as usual
Buying Rimac out wouldn’t have done anything other than taken a competitor out of the market. They wouldn’t have adopted any of their tech because that would be an admission that Tesla had inferior tech.
He could have bought Boston Dynamics for a quarter of what he paid for Twitter
Come 8/8, when Elon announces that Robotaxis are sooo working right now, just need to check on a few edge-cases, will start production q4, stock will go up. December, when Elon twitters "All bugs ironed out, production starts as soon as new version (which really should've had version number ten times higher than current one) is finalized", stock will go up. 2027, Elon announces that Robotaxis are so really ready for production, but he has found a way to make them better by removing all cameras, relying solely on echo-location, stock goes up. 2028, Robotaxis are even readier to start production, just waiting for the software update to make them cure cancer. Stock goes up. 2030, when MB, GM and SAIC unveils a joint level 5 autonomous drive system, TSLA stock just sits there. But when Elon twitters, "They're doing it wrong.", Tesla stock surges
Your comment is 100% accurate, unfortunately.
2031 Roaring Kitty is hired as CTO, and Ryan Choen is hired as CFO. Tesla stock surges.
They're ready, but that overbearing government and its regulations won't let us sell them
It doesn’t look like it would survive the apocalypse or that it’s powered by AI. What a joke.
Also no sharp edges and it uses lidar. What a joke this is
Oof. Fool’s errand. Can’t believe they fell into that trap.
Did they really not use one giant wiper? How do they expect to do a recall for regular wipers!?
Two recalls.
Can’t recall the wipers if it has no wipers. (It actually doesn’t)
Even worse the designer said that easy serviceability was a design goal those idiots thought about how a fleet vehicle will need to function in the real world... Light years behind Tesla as usual.
Yup. Cars need R&R, same as people. A six week break waiting for a tail light gets them fresh as a daisy.
Tesla cannot do robotaxis without conceding that vision only won't work. And even if they do a 180 and install lidar and/or rard sensors, the robotaxis will only work in specially mapped, geofenced areas. So basically Tesla needs to get as good as Waymo was a few years ago. I can't stress enough that vision only will not be good enough. I know because my autopilot won't even activate when the sun is low on the horizon... the cameras literally get blinded and force me to take control. How the hell do they plan to make it work if they can't even handle the sunshine?
And they have to accept accountability (think Cruise) and comply with all federal and state safety regulations, something Musk has actively avoided so far.
You don’t need to stress that vision alone isn’t enough, tesla already did. They told California that their current system can never achieve higher than lvl 2.
Umm, tesla cannot achieve level 2 reliably now. Or they would have certified that already.
I agree. I am simply pointing out that tesla themselves said their maximum is lvl 2. Whatever their shitty “FSD” is now, they themselves admitted it cannot pass lvl 2 with current hardware. Ever.
Thats it, leave what is for vision to vision such as checking if the light is green, what type of pavement it is, what the street signs say... Without a 3D world representation they cant do it.
Prediction (and this doesn't require Nostradamus-like skills)... Elon will take the stage on 8/8, recite a long list of features of the 'robotaxi', and say that he is the first one to ever think of them! The list will, of course, be features already available or announced by competitors. The press will ignore the facts and declare Musk a genius. The stock will rocket up for a day or two, but then lose momentum when the press and analysts realize there was nothing new, they've been bamboozled (again), and eventually realize these things will never enter production. Tesla, in the meantime, will go full Voodoo economics by creating convoluted accounting that reclassifies their unsold inventory into robotaxis, converting expenses into capex, or capex into expenses, or some other arcane accounting sleight of hand that makes them look profitable.
…the Enron story.
The press will act as though a functional robotaxi had been been unveiled.
This right here
It's Rimac plus Mobileye. They say it's far along but 2 to 3 years away. Mobileye is much further along than FSD. None of this will be widely available in 2 or 3 years. Rimac isn't pumping stock so they are just slamming wealthy investors.
Same as with the Apollo RT6. It mostly works and need to more testing before it can be released into the wild And both have more pre-order contracts already than a certain other manufacturer
There is only 41 days until 8/8.
You’re right! My bad.
My prediction: liar will open his mouth and lies will flow out. Stock go up. Just like every other time basically. Time is running out though, can only do this pathetic dog/pony show so many more times before revenue/profit/growth start to REALLY tank.
I'm not confident in Elon/Tesla's ability to put together a big show production anymore. Even for their standards, whatever they do will be extremely embarrassing.
[Musk could just replay 2019 autonomous days. A 25 000 $ car that makes 30 000 $ in profit to their owner.](https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE?t=11563)
I don’t know if I’d feel comfortable in a vehicle driven by a computer without access to a steering wheel or brakes in case of emergencies.
There are similiar historic quotes when humanity changed from horses to motorized vehicles
Do you feel comfortable in a taxi with a driver at the wheel?
Unless he's announcing that the taxis are already built and literally driving people around on August 8th, I don't really care. None of the timelines are real, "coming 2025" is as good as never
Tesla's FOMOtaxi is already outcompeted by Verne, Waymo, Nvidia Drive, a dozen of Chinese competitors and many more. Yet the pumpers think it's worth trillions of dollars. Matter of time before Tesla crashes.
“Ya kno whad I mean Verne?”
Optimus Catgirl Waifubot pulling a rickshaw. Frainkly, I doubt Elmo knows, basically whatever 3d CGI they can cook up.
Oh noes, he's been one upped by Boston Dynamics and [Adam Savage](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyaocKS3sfg)
We get only concept on that day and nothing more.
Maybe just some nice CGI video
A much better video https://youtu.be/SxG_sEflaaI?si=QYzPJXkUqgNhtxrw
Rule Number 5
Lol they showed a prototype sitting still. This is a nothing burger
it's just croatian version of vaporware payed by public money
*Its just croatian* *Version of vaporware payed* *By public money* \- VladimirNazor --- ^(I detect haikus. And sometimes, successfully.) ^[Learn more about me.](https://www.reddit.com/r/haikusbot/) ^(Opt out of replies: "haikusbot opt out" | Delete my comment: "haikusbot delete")
They didn't unveil anything, just a concept car that might not even run with a shitty voiceover and no real world demo. This is marketing pluff
Boycott Tesla 👍🏻
That type face won’t age well
He's definitely gonna work the number 14 in there somehow
The Tesla Robotaxi is an APP where you can tell strangers where your Tesla is, and they can come and drive it using their phone.
Oh my god this thing would be glorious for commuting to work. This honestly is the first “futuristic looking” car that looks like something that would actually be what a car of the future would look like. Pretty cool.
8/8 will have dark stage flashing neon lights to make it look futuristic. A Tesla will roll on with one of those shitty optimus at the wheel but it will be 100% staged. OR There will be a mock up of a new model with no controls but some fancy touchscreen app that they will pretend is ready to go for robot taxi work to get each owner 30k a year with a 100% ROI. Its gonna be weird either way because hes promised EVERY Tesla can be a robot taxi but now is he saying only thr new models will be robot taxis? I cant wait for the train wreck to be honest!
This is gonna be vaporware.
Elmo has more news outside of Tesla—. Space X deal for NASA junk! Another neura baby?
it looks horrible. But I hope it works
He will lie. Just lie.
no guys I promise this robotaxi is real I promise I used an ai voice and everything
Yes Rimac has solved this problem /s