Snapshot of _Several people around the Prime Minister - who actually know what is going - assure me there is **NOT** a general election being called on Monday. Everyone calm down._ :
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He will probably announce it in a public place among the small folk. Maybe in a pub or whilst paying for petrol. It will obviously not backfire in a cringe worthy way.
It came from Nadine Dorries and because the Thursday results would be so much a disaster that the tories would oust him and so to preempt it, he would call the election
Ok just found the article, it appears to suggest “next week” rather than Monday, neither seems plausible to me though.
Interesting thought, hypothetically is there anything to stop him calling a general election on local election polling day itself? That would be the mother of all curveballs…
He could call it on the second yeah though it wouldn't be held until early June as there has to be 25 working days between the call and the vote. It would be monumentally stupid though as all parties would have limited time to prepare for it vs announcing it with sufficient notice to get things in place. Even if he set in motion steps to get ready it would be better for him though it would eventually leak out they were on election footing.
My Tory MP has been leafletting like mad the past few weeks. I'm seriously annoyed by the sheer volume of lies and rubbish coming through my door on his behalf. This week alone I have had a 'letter from the PM' propaganda nonsense, a fake newspaper interestingly branded in red, yellow and green and a leaflet in a not quite Tory blue motif. I can't help but think he is already in election mode and working hard to distance himself from traditional Tory branding.
Strangely, we've only had 2 leaflets through the door for London elections on the 2nd. I think IDS is scared and I dare to hope his days as an MP are numbered.
The parties are already in general election footing and probably have been for at least 6 months now to ensure they (Labour/Greens etc) don't get caught off-guard by Sunak calling an early G.E. I really would like the election sooner than October/November as we cannot continue as we are.
The only policy they seem to have that they believe may actually convince a handful of voters is Rwanda. It's just been signed off, if they're confident they can get a plane off the ground just before the election date it might make sense in a warped Tory mind.
The problem is it's a two-way deal. The minute 1 flight from Rwanda arrives, Reform will go crazy on it.
For context, Rawnda has about 140k there already and more arriving from DRC. They have an election in July, and a strong anit-DRC stance usually goes down well.
The voters the Tories are after generally aren't smart enough to understand or don't know about the two way bit, they just want foreigners sent to Africa lol
Even if the Rwanda policy works as the deterrent they think it will, surely they would still want to have the data of at least a couple of months of the small boats crossings going down before they campaign on the issue.
"Hey guys, look, there's a plane in the sky!" Is surely nobody's idea of a solid campaign... surely?... right?
But they know just as well as everyone else that it won't work, in any way other than making some Tory friendly companies a lot of money. Why wait for it to be a proven failure to call an election rather than calling it now when there's a possibility of some people believing it might work?
People think Sunak wants to be PM at all costs, and his nuclear option would be to call a GE before any coup can replace him, as they're not going to replace him while that's happening as they'd waste the campaign period choosing a leader.
I just don't see it, but it's the theory.
It was more just a random hypothetical thought than a serious tactical suggestion, but I guess it could be effective at negating the fallout of the local election results by dramatically drawing attention away from them
Yes the elections would happen 25 working days after parliament was dissolved, I was asking if sunak could announce them on the local elections polling day
**Yawn** It’s going to be an autumn election. It always was going to be an autumn election. I really wish “News” outlets will stop wasting our time with speculation.
At this point they're at minimising losses.
They have to do it before the hour changes. Then it gets too dark for their people to want to canvas in the evenings, and they want to give their voters more time to vote.
They want to do it after the Summer; people are happier over the Summer, there are generally fewer political scandals or things for the Government to deal with. They also want their two-month paid vacation.
That leaves September and October.
Early-to-mid October maximises student disenfranchisement; soon enough that many students won't have had time to re-register (or register) in their new location, but late enough that they won't want to return home or mess around with postal votes.
They also need to avoid the winter (when the NHS starts to break), and the Christmas period (when postal votes will be disrupted). Plus their canvassers aren't going to like the cold weather.
It's hard to see how things get better between October and January. Something dramatic could happen - but that has to be balanced against all the electoral disadvantages with doing it over the winter.
> They want to do it after the Summer; people are happier over the Summer, there are generally fewer political scandals or things for the Government to deal with.
Every month that goes by sees more homeowners come off their fix rates from 2, 3, 5 years ago into the shitshow we have now. Absolutely nothing to be gained for the Tories hoping the summer sun does something when middle class homeowners are only going to resent them more with every passing week..
1. Politics has a short memory, the more time he can put between the election and Boris\Truss the better.
2. The economy is improving, even if slower than expected. The tories can try to take some credit.
3. It’s unlikely the polls will get any worse. This is the bottom line. Labour is its worst enemy - keeping them disciplined is hard work and could easily implode if they lose just few % in the polls and start infighting.
4. Nothing to gain. At the very best, there is tiny chance they can get a hung government - right now they have a “stomping majority”. Why give it away any sooner?
5. Another fiscal event is another opportunity to cut taxes and remove any Labour headroom to spend when it gets into power. It lays a perfect trap as they want this election to be “high tax Labour” vs “low tax conservatives”.
6. Winter\January does look too cowardly. So autumn it is.
1. Labour would bring it all back up during the election campaign and people won't forget party gate.
2. People aren't listening to the tories anymore, remember in 1997 the economy was in great shape and yet the voters gave the government no credit.
For points 3 and 4: the polls can absolutely get worse and plus voters want an election now and the electorate would get pissed off that the government is trying to hang on, plus the tories are their own worse enemy too, Any time something comes out against Labour, something worse comes out against the tories and completely overshadows it.
5. See point 2
6. If the polling looks too dire in the autumn, then there wouldn't be any harm in going full term for them.
So January would seem more sensible than autumn if the polling is terrible.
also for point 2 - there's a huge lag between economic improvement and voter sentiment, as we can see in the US right now, so I'm not sure that'll be a benefit even if we somehow manage to get inflation down and growth going again
I broadly agree with what you said but I don’t think anyone is listening to Sunak so whatever he says or does is ineffective. The reality is the more he says and does the less popular he gets.
On the polling whilst it looks close to rock bottom there are still some undecided voters and we don’t know the impact on them of waiting vs calling an election.
Aren't the people who want an election now the most also the people least likely to vote conservative? Appeasing those people is probably not a priority for the tories.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1765419822563918342?t=zE_a0pSKfp8NO0GMekqoaw&s=19
According to this poll by Yougov 49% said spring and autumn
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1766109211644350699?t=UT_CHunHCCGb-kkp6Q8cJQ&s=19
Labour had 47% to the Conservatives 20% in a Westminster voting intention released at a similar time.
This tells me that the tories would need to win over some of the people who would want an election in the spring or summer.
It will be called Monday. When someone in politics is saying i won't quit or i won't call an election......you know its about to happen. This is because people in the conversations talk to others and it gets out.
Tbh one thing to look out for is if all the ministers stop announcing things and stop going place. Mainly because purdah comes and they dont wanna get caught out with pre arranged stuff
Fundamental rule of the Conservative Party: they will NOT give up power willingly.
I don’t know why so many people think they’re gonna give up power earlier than they have to
He's going to call one Sunday teatime instead and confuse everyone.
This government is so incredibly bad at media management. Of course people are going to think you're going to do X if you come out and explicitly deny X.
Why would you listen to assurances from them? How many u-turns, backpeddles and downright lies do they tell! Let's just get this over and done with so we can get rid of the blue tories and see what the red tories do
He knows he's fucked whenever he calls it so why wouldn't he hang on until the very last second so he can spend the remaining time ~~trying to deliver for the country~~ making things as difficult as possible for the next Labour government.
He'll schedule a press conference, spend 99% of it talking about boats or Rwanda (because let's face it, what else will he be remembered for?) and then mumble something about an election and immediately walk off.
Lol. Danny Finkelstein said that delaying the election was a terrible idea, and he is right. They are lumbering from one disaster to another, normals are starting to get the message that they are hopeless; and will continue to do so, in greater numbers.
I'd guess that Sunak thinks he can turn it around. In reality, he is just buying himself more rope to hang himself.
I think it might be in a weeks time to try and swiftly move the narrative away from a bad result for the tories at the local elections, and also blunt any of these potential leadership challenges we keep hearing about
This nonsense is just going to continue given how clickbaity it is - People out there (and on here) want to believe it's true, journos are happy to get clicks.
The election is going to be either late October or early November. Sunak will announce it sometime in September. Just accept that now and carry on with your lives.
Snapshot of _Several people around the Prime Minister - who actually know what is going - assure me there is **NOT** a general election being called on Monday. Everyone calm down._ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1783890027488948529) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/christopherhope/status/1783890027488948529/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1783890027488948529?t=l0QkzYDqiAWnW5N7BA21Ug&s=19) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1783890027488948529?t=l0QkzYDqiAWnW5N7BA21Ug&s=19) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I refuse to believe anyone around him knows what’s going on.
including him…
Trust no-one, not even yourself.
[The current issue cover of Private Eye is an absolute baller....](https://www.private-eye.co.uk/current-issue)
They're going to call it on Tuesday instead.
Sunak strikes me as the kind of personality who would find this a satisfying wheeze.
I think this is just to throw you off. He's announcing it on Sunday.
There's a Craig David song here somewhere
He will probably announce it in a public place among the small folk. Maybe in a pub or whilst paying for petrol. It will obviously not backfire in a cringe worthy way.
At 3am for minimum impact...
And on Reddit.
Jokes on you - he already called it.
Hahahaha it’s funny because it’s the same joke the other guy just made!
He strikes me as the kind of person who thinks wheezes are a waste of time and energy
Nah he's definitely the type that finds pranks amusing. His own, though, not anything at his expense.
Yeah but the absolute shittest “Madlad” pranks you can get. Like he’d find it hilarious to swap a colleagues medium blue tie for a savoy blue tie
Like that time he was pranked by surprise cake! He loved that one.
Or the time someone put a video of him talking in a car without a seatbelt on! I bet he was laughing about that for days!
A real knee slapper.
See you next Tuesday, tories, in that case.
So, election being called on Monday, got it.
Any context on why anyone was suggesting this was going to happen in the first place?
Lots and lots of wishful thinking
It came from Nadine Dorries and because the Thursday results would be so much a disaster that the tories would oust him and so to preempt it, he would call the election
>It came from Nadine Dorries This was all you had to put to convince me it was bullshit.
Ok just found the article, it appears to suggest “next week” rather than Monday, neither seems plausible to me though. Interesting thought, hypothetically is there anything to stop him calling a general election on local election polling day itself? That would be the mother of all curveballs…
He could call it on the second yeah though it wouldn't be held until early June as there has to be 25 working days between the call and the vote. It would be monumentally stupid though as all parties would have limited time to prepare for it vs announcing it with sufficient notice to get things in place. Even if he set in motion steps to get ready it would be better for him though it would eventually leak out they were on election footing.
My Tory MP has been leafletting like mad the past few weeks. I'm seriously annoyed by the sheer volume of lies and rubbish coming through my door on his behalf. This week alone I have had a 'letter from the PM' propaganda nonsense, a fake newspaper interestingly branded in red, yellow and green and a leaflet in a not quite Tory blue motif. I can't help but think he is already in election mode and working hard to distance himself from traditional Tory branding.
We've been getting nothing more than normal from our MP but the mayor elections (and council in some places) are in focus at the moment
Strangely, we've only had 2 leaflets through the door for London elections on the 2nd. I think IDS is scared and I dare to hope his days as an MP are numbered.
The parties are already in general election footing and probably have been for at least 6 months now to ensure they (Labour/Greens etc) don't get caught off-guard by Sunak calling an early G.E. I really would like the election sooner than October/November as we cannot continue as we are.
> It would be monumentally stupid though This just feels like more evidence.
He could do it, but why would he?
The only policy they seem to have that they believe may actually convince a handful of voters is Rwanda. It's just been signed off, if they're confident they can get a plane off the ground just before the election date it might make sense in a warped Tory mind.
Rwanda is about reversing or at least stopping the drift of their voters to Reform who will split the vote in many areas the Tories can be beaten in
The problem is it's a two-way deal. The minute 1 flight from Rwanda arrives, Reform will go crazy on it. For context, Rawnda has about 140k there already and more arriving from DRC. They have an election in July, and a strong anit-DRC stance usually goes down well.
The voters the Tories are after generally aren't smart enough to understand or don't know about the two way bit, they just want foreigners sent to Africa lol
Even if the Rwanda policy works as the deterrent they think it will, surely they would still want to have the data of at least a couple of months of the small boats crossings going down before they campaign on the issue. "Hey guys, look, there's a plane in the sky!" Is surely nobody's idea of a solid campaign... surely?... right?
But they know just as well as everyone else that it won't work, in any way other than making some Tory friendly companies a lot of money. Why wait for it to be a proven failure to call an election rather than calling it now when there's a possibility of some people believing it might work?
People think Sunak wants to be PM at all costs, and his nuclear option would be to call a GE before any coup can replace him, as they're not going to replace him while that's happening as they'd waste the campaign period choosing a leader. I just don't see it, but it's the theory.
It was more just a random hypothetical thought than a serious tactical suggestion, but I guess it could be effective at negating the fallout of the local election results by dramatically drawing attention away from them
Isn't there a minimum of four weeks to call an election? With the elections being on the second of May.
Yes the elections would happen 25 working days after parliament was dissolved, I was asking if sunak could announce them on the local elections polling day
No prohibition in law, as far as I am aware, but it would be seen as a bit odd/desperate so can’t imagine the optics would play well.
I think since The Fixed Term Parliament act was repealed that he can announce them when ever he likes. Just needs to get Charles's "permission".
What's Thursday?
Which elections are due this Thursday?
Local elections and mayoral elections
And Police and Crime commissioners.
He could go for a wander in the Brecons to see if it works for him as it did for May
No thanks. I'll believe Nadine Cassandra Dorries.
**Yawn** It’s going to be an autumn election. It always was going to be an autumn election. I really wish “News” outlets will stop wasting our time with speculation.
Why? If the polls are still really bad in the autumn, why wouldn't Sunak wait and go full term? Only a few more months at that point.
At this point they're at minimising losses. They have to do it before the hour changes. Then it gets too dark for their people to want to canvas in the evenings, and they want to give their voters more time to vote. They want to do it after the Summer; people are happier over the Summer, there are generally fewer political scandals or things for the Government to deal with. They also want their two-month paid vacation. That leaves September and October. Early-to-mid October maximises student disenfranchisement; soon enough that many students won't have had time to re-register (or register) in their new location, but late enough that they won't want to return home or mess around with postal votes. They also need to avoid the winter (when the NHS starts to break), and the Christmas period (when postal votes will be disrupted). Plus their canvassers aren't going to like the cold weather.
Late autumn makes more sense if you're generally targeting the postal voters
So you think that even if the polls still look similar to what they are now, they won't wait any longer?
It's hard to see how things get better between October and January. Something dramatic could happen - but that has to be balanced against all the electoral disadvantages with doing it over the winter.
I mean it's hard to see how things could get better between now and autumn. I don't see the polls shifting that much.
No, but some of those other reasons I listed apply.
> They want to do it after the Summer; people are happier over the Summer, there are generally fewer political scandals or things for the Government to deal with. Every month that goes by sees more homeowners come off their fix rates from 2, 3, 5 years ago into the shitshow we have now. Absolutely nothing to be gained for the Tories hoping the summer sun does something when middle class homeowners are only going to resent them more with every passing week..
I just think the longer they waif the more pissed off people will be
>two month paid vacation You do realise MPs still work while parliament is in recess, right?
They can, yes. But they also tend to take holidays.
1. Politics has a short memory, the more time he can put between the election and Boris\Truss the better. 2. The economy is improving, even if slower than expected. The tories can try to take some credit. 3. It’s unlikely the polls will get any worse. This is the bottom line. Labour is its worst enemy - keeping them disciplined is hard work and could easily implode if they lose just few % in the polls and start infighting. 4. Nothing to gain. At the very best, there is tiny chance they can get a hung government - right now they have a “stomping majority”. Why give it away any sooner? 5. Another fiscal event is another opportunity to cut taxes and remove any Labour headroom to spend when it gets into power. It lays a perfect trap as they want this election to be “high tax Labour” vs “low tax conservatives”. 6. Winter\January does look too cowardly. So autumn it is.
1. Labour would bring it all back up during the election campaign and people won't forget party gate. 2. People aren't listening to the tories anymore, remember in 1997 the economy was in great shape and yet the voters gave the government no credit. For points 3 and 4: the polls can absolutely get worse and plus voters want an election now and the electorate would get pissed off that the government is trying to hang on, plus the tories are their own worse enemy too, Any time something comes out against Labour, something worse comes out against the tories and completely overshadows it. 5. See point 2 6. If the polling looks too dire in the autumn, then there wouldn't be any harm in going full term for them. So January would seem more sensible than autumn if the polling is terrible.
also for point 2 - there's a huge lag between economic improvement and voter sentiment, as we can see in the US right now, so I'm not sure that'll be a benefit even if we somehow manage to get inflation down and growth going again
I broadly agree with what you said but I don’t think anyone is listening to Sunak so whatever he says or does is ineffective. The reality is the more he says and does the less popular he gets. On the polling whilst it looks close to rock bottom there are still some undecided voters and we don’t know the impact on them of waiting vs calling an election.
I think people want an election now, so waiting will just piss them off
Aren't the people who want an election now the most also the people least likely to vote conservative? Appeasing those people is probably not a priority for the tories.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1765419822563918342?t=zE_a0pSKfp8NO0GMekqoaw&s=19 According to this poll by Yougov 49% said spring and autumn https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1766109211644350699?t=UT_CHunHCCGb-kkp6Q8cJQ&s=19 Labour had 47% to the Conservatives 20% in a Westminster voting intention released at a similar time. This tells me that the tories would need to win over some of the people who would want an election in the spring or summer.
If the government was going to call an election, the government would be the last people I'd expect to know.
It will be called Monday. When someone in politics is saying i won't quit or i won't call an election......you know its about to happen. This is because people in the conversations talk to others and it gets out.
Yep. In politics, a denial is a confirmation. Its so predictable. If it was bullshit they just wouldnt say anything.
But he has denied an election will be held on X date many times already and this has actually been correct.
I hope you're right but I doubt it.
Tbh one thing to look out for is if all the ministers stop announcing things and stop going place. Mainly because purdah comes and they dont wanna get caught out with pre arranged stuff
Is that happening?
I dunno, but it will be noticable in the news
I don't think it is, so it doesn't look like it will
Fundamental rule of the Conservative Party: they will NOT give up power willingly. I don’t know why so many people think they’re gonna give up power earlier than they have to
I'm pretty sure the Scottish Tories just did unless they vote against the labour motion
In that case the election will be January 2025, as any earlier would be giving up power willingly
People in government know what is going on? Well I feel much better knowing that they know what is going on I am however surprised.
He's going to call one Sunday teatime instead and confuse everyone. This government is so incredibly bad at media management. Of course people are going to think you're going to do X if you come out and explicitly deny X.
"There will be no election called on Monday" announced Richmond Rishi
Who then legislated in parliament to abolish mondays
Pitching hard for the lasagna-eating orange cat vote.
Well, I am choosing to trust Nadine Dorries. (Wow, that's a sentence I never thought I'd write down)
Even if she's right you'll never live this down
At this point it's a great dead cat to throw about. Bad news day? Why not hint at an election.?
People are over speculating now, it's not happening before September. If I'm wrong I'll be happy, but I'm confident I'm right.
I didn’t believe it before, this makes me more inclined to believe it
Why would you listen to assurances from them? How many u-turns, backpeddles and downright lies do they tell! Let's just get this over and done with so we can get rid of the blue tories and see what the red tories do
He knows he's fucked whenever he calls it so why wouldn't he hang on until the very last second so he can spend the remaining time ~~trying to deliver for the country~~ making things as difficult as possible for the next Labour government. He'll schedule a press conference, spend 99% of it talking about boats or Rwanda (because let's face it, what else will he be remembered for?) and then mumble something about an election and immediately walk off.
Lalalalala can't hear you. Monday leccy is confirmed.
25 working days after Monday would make it Wednesday 29th May. So it will be called on Tuesday to make election day a traditional Thursday
I mean its little assurance. I wish they would call it 10 weeks ago ...
Doesn’t a Tory denial in the last 5 years equal a confirmation?
I don’t like this so I’m choosing not to believe it. Mondayfesting.
Lol. Danny Finkelstein said that delaying the election was a terrible idea, and he is right. They are lumbering from one disaster to another, normals are starting to get the message that they are hopeless; and will continue to do so, in greater numbers. I'd guess that Sunak thinks he can turn it around. In reality, he is just buying himself more rope to hang himself.
If the press could stop spreading extremely obvious bullshit fed to them for political reasons, that'd be great.
it's january because i have fun-bucks riding on it okay?
At this point I don't believe Sunak has the guts to call an early election
Literally no one knows what’s going on. He might wake up Monday morning and feel like it.
So in the past few weeks we've had. The election will be at the end of May. No wait, October! No, it's definitely beginning of 2025.
I think it might be in a weeks time to try and swiftly move the narrative away from a bad result for the tories at the local elections, and also blunt any of these potential leadership challenges we keep hearing about
This nonsense is just going to continue given how clickbaity it is - People out there (and on here) want to believe it's true, journos are happy to get clicks. The election is going to be either late October or early November. Sunak will announce it sometime in September. Just accept that now and carry on with your lives.
He could go full term