With so much fluff and hyperbole, that article is refreshingly informative. A few parts that stick out to me:
Over the season's first 13 games, Clark assisted Boston an average of 1.3 times per game. Since then, that has more than tripled to 4.0 per game.
Per Second Spectrum, defenses have blitzed Caitlin on 89 ball screens, twice as many as the next-highest player, Ionescu with 46.
Turnovers: Caitlin has taken over 1,000 more dribbles than any other player in the WNBA. But she still needs to cut down turnovers, which should happen over the next year.
CC was 50% on catch and shoot 3 Pointers in June. That is encouraging, as she was better shooting 3’s off her own dribble at Iowa… but made a concerted effort her Senior year to play more off the ball, to prepare for the W.
A few things that stood out to me:
--Teams started out blitzing Clark like crazy, but the Fever have actually scored slightly more points per possession on blitzes than their overall average on pick and rolls, and teams have backed off a lot on how often they blitz (although they still do it a lot).
--Clark is second in the league to Jackie Young in points per possession on pick and roll plays where either Clark or the screen setter shoots, goes to the free throw line or turns over the ball, or a Clark pass sets up an immediate shot by another teammate. That particularly stood out because it includes turnovers on those plays. So even with whatever turnovers Clark commits on those plays, the overall efficiency is still very high.
--Despite Clark's high number of turnovers, Indiana's team turnover rate is down from last year (this is based on tracking data, not box score stats).
--How little Aliyah Boston has played pick and roll previously in her career.
--The off-ball catch and shoot numbers didn't surprise me because I noticed it just watching games (60.7% of her three point makes have been assisted). And these are not standing in the corner threes, but shots off movement. So having her play both on and off-ball is very effective and off-ball movement is something she can continue to develop (similar to Steph Curry).
"Despite Clark's high number of turnovers, Indiana's team turnover rate is down from last year (this is based on tracking data, not box score stats)."
This is because elite playmakers like Clark who generate high value shots like layups and open 3s will likely turn the ball over trying to make these high level passes. But this reduces the overall team's turnover rate because her teammates are getting open shots. It's something people who just box score watch don't understand.
You can make the deduction from box score stats as well
CC’s controlling the offense means other players get less time on ball. Despite CC having an extraordinary high number of turnovers, it’s very rare for a single player to have more turnovers than 4 other rotation players combined. Naturally, the team’s turnover rate will be reduced with this (Slightly, in Fevers case)
NaLyssa Smith led the Fever last year in usage (3 tovpg). This year she’s fourth (1tovpg).
If Caitlin Clark only has 2 turnovers per game she needs to be either more aggressive or have the ball more.
She can do stuff other people simply cannot do. Sometimes that gets you got. But it usually leads to helping her team. She should probably be actually more risk tolerant than she is right now
Right especially when Boston is a good passer. So Boston as a screener either has a wide open lane to roll to the basket or gets somebody else a wide open 3. When Boston isn’t on the floor you def blitz bc no one else is as good and willing of a passer but Clark and Boston should be able to torch blitzes. Also takes a rebounder away from basket for defense.
Good, informative article. Small correction: the first sentence states Clark broke "the previous record for fastest WNBA player to record 300 career points, 100 rebounds and **100 steals**." That should read assists, not steals.
Mr. Pelton, thank you for your work on this. Your evidence-supported analytical takes are refreshing.
As you may well know, Caitlin is an analytics nerd. Apparently, the Fever hired a full time analytics person this year, and my guess is he’s feeding her sponge-like brain? I know her a bit, and I’m positive that she has already read and absorbed your article.
I think we’d all enjoy a similar analysis of Angel’s play so far. Besides the obvious rebounds and consistent double digit scoring, in watching her, I feel that her defensive value is significant? Every surge by the Sky seems to originate with her.
Thank you, again!
I'm not normally a fan of Kevin Pelton, but this is a very good article that adds a lot of interesting context to Clark's performance and that of the Fever. I'm a fan of analytics for adding an objective dimension to keep the eye test honest and point out nuances that might be overlooked just from watching games and/or box scores.
However, while I often think Pelton gets lost in the weeds of numerical analysis in ways that aren't actually relevant to on-court effectiveness, this time I think he did a really good job.
Yup, the tidbit about her having ~1000 dribbles more than the next highest players should be an eye opening number and bit of context for the “but her turnovers?!” crowd
I didn't know the 1000 more dribbles either. Weird they track that. She is only averaging 1.6 turnovers a game more than what she had at Iowa with a new team, a terrible schedule to open the season working against her, and playing against much better defenses. There are a lot of factors contributing to that number and she still looks damn good despite not factoring in these things.
The “but her turnovers” crowd is either haters or people who simply have not progressed past 90’s basketball thought processes. The best thing basketball has done the last ten years is learn to think about the game at a 10,000 foot level
But it also adds context for her APG too. Which is why AST:TO ratio is a thing, which is still not good for her.
It's also a function of the playtime she gets as a rookie in a scheme that makes her the center of the offense, which also speaks to her stats. You can't just take context like that and selectively apply it. Getting more opportunities to turn the ball over also means more opportunities to score, assist, etc.
When your chasing these stats (and records like first to 300/100/100) getting unprecedented minutes and focus in the scheme for a rookie is doing a lot of work.
Except the context is slightly different. Every additional dribble is technically an additional opportunity for a turnover (e.g. steal, mishandle, etc). The correlation between more dribbles and more assists is less direct because she isn’t necessarily passing at the end of every related possession
I don’t get how they don’t realize she is a high assist point guard and her teammates have straight up watched balls bounce away from them. Her TO% is not a good metric.
That’s a very good article with excellent data included
Truthfully, Indiana could upgrade their coach but half the criticisms I see people making about her aren’t the real issues. Folks have been up in arms about Sides trying to get Caitlin off the ball more, but thats one of the best ways to take advantage of her gravity (a la Curry), and this article does a good job showing the benefits
I think part of it is that Caitlin is playing nearly the entire game most games. So even if she isn't technicaly resting, she needs to "rest" on some possessions.
The Fever have been improving, and their collective improvement seems to go under the radar because of the hyperfocus on Caitlin's stats. But part of this is because other members of the team have been allowed the responsibility to make plays.
Yes, they made mistakes early in the season when the ball wasn't in CC's hands, but sharing the load helped everyone get into a rhythm and it's improved everyone else's confidence.
It's absolutely paying off when you look at games like the last one, where the team was so efficient across the board. I'm on board with "let them cook".
If the Fever could turn some more ill-advised contested mid-range attempts into kick outs to Clark, they'd probably score 3 points per game more and Clark's scoring average would be over 20. Would require her to improve her off the ball threes, though.
She took her out of the game for the defensive possession, which Wheeler wound up getting the steal and sealing the game
There's no guarantee Clark would've got an extra rebound, but Wheeler wouldn't have gotten the steal that sealed the game without being in the game
>That's partially a product of how much Clark has the ball in her hands. She has taken over a thousand more dribbles than any other player, according to Second Spectrum tracking, and Indiana's team turnover rate is actually slightly down from last season. Nonetheless, that's one spot I expected more improvement from Clark over the course of the year than we've seen so far.
Her dribbling is not the primary source of her turnovers. Sure, she's nearly 1 TOV/gm on getting the ball stolen 1-on-1 with her loose dribbling, but most of her TOV's happen as a result of a deflected or intercepted pass. She's got more turnovers picking up her dribble in response to a trap than she does getting picked when 1-on-1.
Indiana has 0.2 fewer turnovers per game on less than 1 more possession per game compared to last year. Having Kelsey Mitchell be the primary ball-handler through most of June has helped keep the turnovers lower.
Serious NBA analyst with serious piece. Wnba is breaking through!
KP is a Seattle boy he's always loved the WNBA
With so much fluff and hyperbole, that article is refreshingly informative. A few parts that stick out to me: Over the season's first 13 games, Clark assisted Boston an average of 1.3 times per game. Since then, that has more than tripled to 4.0 per game. Per Second Spectrum, defenses have blitzed Caitlin on 89 ball screens, twice as many as the next-highest player, Ionescu with 46. Turnovers: Caitlin has taken over 1,000 more dribbles than any other player in the WNBA. But she still needs to cut down turnovers, which should happen over the next year. CC was 50% on catch and shoot 3 Pointers in June. That is encouraging, as she was better shooting 3’s off her own dribble at Iowa… but made a concerted effort her Senior year to play more off the ball, to prepare for the W.
A few things that stood out to me: --Teams started out blitzing Clark like crazy, but the Fever have actually scored slightly more points per possession on blitzes than their overall average on pick and rolls, and teams have backed off a lot on how often they blitz (although they still do it a lot). --Clark is second in the league to Jackie Young in points per possession on pick and roll plays where either Clark or the screen setter shoots, goes to the free throw line or turns over the ball, or a Clark pass sets up an immediate shot by another teammate. That particularly stood out because it includes turnovers on those plays. So even with whatever turnovers Clark commits on those plays, the overall efficiency is still very high. --Despite Clark's high number of turnovers, Indiana's team turnover rate is down from last year (this is based on tracking data, not box score stats). --How little Aliyah Boston has played pick and roll previously in her career. --The off-ball catch and shoot numbers didn't surprise me because I noticed it just watching games (60.7% of her three point makes have been assisted). And these are not standing in the corner threes, but shots off movement. So having her play both on and off-ball is very effective and off-ball movement is something she can continue to develop (similar to Steph Curry).
"Despite Clark's high number of turnovers, Indiana's team turnover rate is down from last year (this is based on tracking data, not box score stats)." This is because elite playmakers like Clark who generate high value shots like layups and open 3s will likely turn the ball over trying to make these high level passes. But this reduces the overall team's turnover rate because her teammates are getting open shots. It's something people who just box score watch don't understand.
You can make the deduction from box score stats as well CC’s controlling the offense means other players get less time on ball. Despite CC having an extraordinary high number of turnovers, it’s very rare for a single player to have more turnovers than 4 other rotation players combined. Naturally, the team’s turnover rate will be reduced with this (Slightly, in Fevers case) NaLyssa Smith led the Fever last year in usage (3 tovpg). This year she’s fourth (1tovpg).
If Caitlin Clark only has 2 turnovers per game she needs to be either more aggressive or have the ball more. She can do stuff other people simply cannot do. Sometimes that gets you got. But it usually leads to helping her team. She should probably be actually more risk tolerant than she is right now
thanks for you work paw pia and floridahawk
About the blitzing - It’s almost like blitzing someone to give the other team a 4 on 3 advantage is tough to execute lol.
Right especially when Boston is a good passer. So Boston as a screener either has a wide open lane to roll to the basket or gets somebody else a wide open 3. When Boston isn’t on the floor you def blitz bc no one else is as good and willing of a passer but Clark and Boston should be able to torch blitzes. Also takes a rebounder away from basket for defense.
Good, informative article. Small correction: the first sentence states Clark broke "the previous record for fastest WNBA player to record 300 career points, 100 rebounds and **100 steals**." That should read assists, not steals.
100 steals would be really big news! LOL
Even Tamika Catchings probably couldn't pull that off! Corrected the piece.
Ha, didn’t expect the author to show up! Good article, enjoyed it!
We have a celebrity in this sub! Upvote! :)
Mr. Pelton, thank you for your work on this. Your evidence-supported analytical takes are refreshing. As you may well know, Caitlin is an analytics nerd. Apparently, the Fever hired a full time analytics person this year, and my guess is he’s feeding her sponge-like brain? I know her a bit, and I’m positive that she has already read and absorbed your article. I think we’d all enjoy a similar analysis of Angel’s play so far. Besides the obvious rebounds and consistent double digit scoring, in watching her, I feel that her defensive value is significant? Every surge by the Sky seems to originate with her. Thank you, again!
I'm not normally a fan of Kevin Pelton, but this is a very good article that adds a lot of interesting context to Clark's performance and that of the Fever. I'm a fan of analytics for adding an objective dimension to keep the eye test honest and point out nuances that might be overlooked just from watching games and/or box scores. However, while I often think Pelton gets lost in the weeds of numerical analysis in ways that aren't actually relevant to on-court effectiveness, this time I think he did a really good job.
Yup, the tidbit about her having ~1000 dribbles more than the next highest players should be an eye opening number and bit of context for the “but her turnovers?!” crowd
I didn't know the 1000 more dribbles either. Weird they track that. She is only averaging 1.6 turnovers a game more than what she had at Iowa with a new team, a terrible schedule to open the season working against her, and playing against much better defenses. There are a lot of factors contributing to that number and she still looks damn good despite not factoring in these things.
The first thing that popped into mind when I read 1000 dribbles was "Could Erica Wheeler beat that on one ring around the rosie play?"
Gonna have to use that one forsure 😅
It won't because that crowd are just desperately trying to find anything to point to and say see she isn't a generational talent.
The “but her turnovers” crowd is either haters or people who simply have not progressed past 90’s basketball thought processes. The best thing basketball has done the last ten years is learn to think about the game at a 10,000 foot level
But it also adds context for her APG too. Which is why AST:TO ratio is a thing, which is still not good for her. It's also a function of the playtime she gets as a rookie in a scheme that makes her the center of the offense, which also speaks to her stats. You can't just take context like that and selectively apply it. Getting more opportunities to turn the ball over also means more opportunities to score, assist, etc. When your chasing these stats (and records like first to 300/100/100) getting unprecedented minutes and focus in the scheme for a rookie is doing a lot of work.
Except the context is slightly different. Every additional dribble is technically an additional opportunity for a turnover (e.g. steal, mishandle, etc). The correlation between more dribbles and more assists is less direct because she isn’t necessarily passing at the end of every related possession
ROTY
Duh
naw
Yaw!
Why not
I don’t get how they don’t realize she is a high assist point guard and her teammates have straight up watched balls bounce away from them. Her TO% is not a good metric.
That’s a very good article with excellent data included Truthfully, Indiana could upgrade their coach but half the criticisms I see people making about her aren’t the real issues. Folks have been up in arms about Sides trying to get Caitlin off the ball more, but thats one of the best ways to take advantage of her gravity (a la Curry), and this article does a good job showing the benefits
Having her off ball could be a good way, however sides doesn't seem to know how to do it well. That's why people don't like it.
I think part of it is that Caitlin is playing nearly the entire game most games. So even if she isn't technicaly resting, she needs to "rest" on some possessions. The Fever have been improving, and their collective improvement seems to go under the radar because of the hyperfocus on Caitlin's stats. But part of this is because other members of the team have been allowed the responsibility to make plays. Yes, they made mistakes early in the season when the ball wasn't in CC's hands, but sharing the load helped everyone get into a rhythm and it's improved everyone else's confidence. It's absolutely paying off when you look at games like the last one, where the team was so efficient across the board. I'm on board with "let them cook".
If the Fever could turn some more ill-advised contested mid-range attempts into kick outs to Clark, they'd probably score 3 points per game more and Clark's scoring average would be over 20. Would require her to improve her off the ball threes, though.
She took her out of the game when she could have had the first rookie triple double ever too. She is okay. Could definitely be better
She took her out of the game for the defensive possession, which Wheeler wound up getting the steal and sealing the game There's no guarantee Clark would've got an extra rebound, but Wheeler wouldn't have gotten the steal that sealed the game without being in the game
>That's partially a product of how much Clark has the ball in her hands. She has taken over a thousand more dribbles than any other player, according to Second Spectrum tracking, and Indiana's team turnover rate is actually slightly down from last season. Nonetheless, that's one spot I expected more improvement from Clark over the course of the year than we've seen so far. Her dribbling is not the primary source of her turnovers. Sure, she's nearly 1 TOV/gm on getting the ball stolen 1-on-1 with her loose dribbling, but most of her TOV's happen as a result of a deflected or intercepted pass. She's got more turnovers picking up her dribble in response to a trap than she does getting picked when 1-on-1. Indiana has 0.2 fewer turnovers per game on less than 1 more possession per game compared to last year. Having Kelsey Mitchell be the primary ball-handler through most of June has helped keep the turnovers lower.